GCN’s Tour de France predictions

With the Tour de France beginning in Bilbao on Saturday, the excitement that has been building for months will finally be released as the world’s best riders seek to find success in the biggest race of the year. Here at GCN, we have been looking forward to this race with intrigue as our new collection of writers takes shape, and now is the time to put our hotshot editorial team to the test!

On the eve of the Grand Départ in the Basque Country, the editorial team looks ahead to the Tour de France and predicts their movers and shakers.

Daniel Benson - Editor in Chief

1. Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
2. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
3. Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe)

Who else will be in the top 10?

Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates) will be consistent through the mountains and could even make a push for the podium - despite his team duties. No one is talking about his brother, Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla), who could either crack the top five or be reduced to a stage hunter inside the first week. Enric Mas (Movistar), Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich), and Ben O’Connor (AG2R Citroën) will be in contention, while I’ll throw Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) into the mix for a top ten, simply because it would make his incredible comeback story even more impressive.

Who will be the breakout rider of the race?

Velo Collection/Getty Images

Valentin Madouas will be hoping to shine in his new jersey

I’m not sure you can be a breakout rider at 26 but I think Valentin Madouas (Groupama-FDJ) is going to have a cracking Tour de France. He’s the French national champion, and therefore has the best jersey in the peloton, so that has to count for something, and it should count in his favour when he asks Marc Madiot for some freedom. I’m going to be greedy and also pick Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Pro Cycling). He won the Tour de l’Avenir two years ago and looks to be on the cusp of something special in what will be his first Grand Tour.

Which sprinter will dominate?

The more I think about it, the more I can envisage Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan) dominating the sprints and breaking the record. There are question marks over a few of the fastmen in the race and I can just see Cavendish doing what he did in 2016 and maximising a limited lead-out and bossing the Tour in his final season. What happened at the Giro and in the build-up races counts for little at this point. Basically, I’m guilty of writing Cavendish off in the past, and I don’t need to look stupid for a second time.

Who will win the other classifications?

Green: Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma)
KOM: Jonas Vingegaard
White: Tadej Pogačar
Team: UAE Team Emirates

What are you most looking forward to in the race?

My only fear is that bad luck takes out a top favourite and we’re left with a one-sided GC race all the way to Paris like we had in 2014. Hopefully, that doesn’t happen, and we can see a close battle with a few GC surprises along the way before we then turn our attention to the Tour de France Femmes avec Zwift. The first week of the Tour should be electric too, and ASO have put together a beautiful route once again.

Patrick Fletcher - Deputy Editor

1. Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
2. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
3. Enric Mas (Movistar)

Who else will be in the top 10?

The top 10 is a bit of a lottery this year. After his exploits late last season, I’m backing Mas to be the ‘best of the rest,’ but even he has his wobbles. I feel like Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe) will come good in the final week, while Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) should show his basic class after a nondescript start at EF.

But when you add the likes of David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla), Mikel Landa (Bahrain Victorious), Ben O’Connor (AG2R Citroën), Dani Martínez (Ineos Grenadiers), Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) and Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich), you have heaps of quality but rather less recent consistency.

Who will be the breakout rider of the race?

Torstein Træen - in a gag shamelessly stolen from Twitter, I’m all aboard the Torstein hype-Træen, hopefully before it pulls away from the station. Tobias Halland Johannessen is Uno-X’s leading prospect, having won the Tour de l’Avenir a couple of years ago, but Træen was the better performer at the Dauphiné, with 8th overall. Uno-X believe there’s more to come, while other teams are circling given his expiring contract. Plus, there’d be the feel-good factor; Træen spent several months out last year recovering from testicular cancer.

Which sprinter will dominate?

Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) - The Belgian was arguably the top sprinter in 2022, and that has indisputably been the case so far this season. He has won the bigger races, got the better of his rivals, and found every ounce of the confidence he once lacked. Plus, you could argue he has the best lead-out in the race. Michael Mørkøv is widely considered the best in the business for Soudal-Quick Step and Fabio Jakobsen, but with Jonas Rickaert and Ramon Sinkeldam - not to mention a certain Mathieu van der Poel - Alpecin-Deceuninck should be able to put Philipsen in the box seat.

As for Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan) getting his 35th stage victory, the head says no, but the heart says yes.

Who will win the other classifications?

KOM - Jonas Vingegaard - The last three winners have also been the yellow jersey.

Green - Wout van Aert - Even if he doesn’t target it, it’s hard to look past him.

White - Tadej Pogačar - Give it to him now.

Team - Ineos Grenadiers - No top favourite but enough riders to flood the top 15.

What are you most looking forward to in the race?

The mind games, which have already begun. Vingegaard’s camp have insisted (to GCN) that Pogačar remains the favourite, while Pogačar’s camp - in outlining Adam Yates as a co-leader - are suggesting their star man isn’t at 100% after his wrist injury. Having exploited Pogačar’s hubris to such effect last year, it’s understandable that Jumbo-Visma would want to engineer a similar psychological framework, and that Pogačar might also want to retreat into that underdog role this time around. More psychological warfare would elevate what is already becoming a spectacular rivalry.

Tom Hallam Gravells - App Community Manager

Who will be on the podium?

1. Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
2. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
3. Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe)

Who else will be in the top 10?

If he wasn’t on the same team as Tadej Pogačar, Adam Yates would be up there as a podium contender. UAE Team Emirates have said that he’s a co-leader but he’ll probably have to sacrifice his chances at some point should Pogačar stay on track for yellow. Even so, a strong top 10 showing should be possible.

Beyond the top two, the other contenders are fairly evenly matched. The Australian contingent of Ben O'Connor (AG2R Citroën), Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe) and Jack Haig (Bahrain Victorious) will all make the top 10. As should Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich) who has finished in the top 10 at every stage race he’s finished this season. He’ll be joined by David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) who will bounce back after a poor showing at the Critérium du Dauphiné.

Richard Carapaz (EF Edcuation-EasyPost) and Enric Mas (Movistar) are consistent at Grand Tours and are likely to be in the mix.

Who will be the breakout rider of the race?

Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën) has enjoyed a string of top 10 results at stage races this season, including at the recent Tour de Suisse where he picked up his first pro win on stage 4. He had great climbing legs throughout the early stages before dropping off later in the race. He may be in the service of Ben O'Connor but, if he’s given the chance, he will be a dangerous man in a breakaway on any mountainous stage.

Which sprinter will dominate?

As always, there’s a stacked field of sprinters heading to the race but Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Fabio Jakobsen (Soudal-Quick Step) stand out as the strongest. It’ll be an intriguing matchup but Jakobsen should edge it courtesy of his more experienced sprint train.

Can Mark Cavendish take that much-anticipated 35th stage win? I think it’s unlikely. The British rider struggled at the Giro d’Italia until the final stage and he’ll face much stiffer competition in France. Who would write him off, though?

Who will win the other classifications?

I’m hoping Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ) can take the KOM jersey in his final Tour de France. In reality, it’ll probably go to Vingegaard or Pogačar who will mop up plenty of points in their battle for yellow. The green jersey will go to Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), Pogačar will take white even if he’s not at his best, and Ineos Grenadiers' multiple team leaders will secure them the team classification.

Velo Collection/Getty Images

There are few finer sights in cycling than an on song Thibaut Pinot in the mountains

What are you most looking forward to in the race?

All eyes will be on the battle between Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar at this year’s race. The duo are head and shoulders above the other GC contenders and, if they both stay safe and are on top form, it should be an unforgettable battle for yellow. There is the lingering concern that, if Pogačar hasn’t fully recovered from his injury, it could become a very one-sided race. Let’s all hope for the first scenario. Either way, the first few stages in the Basque Country are sure to produce some exciting racing and there may even be some early GC surprises.

Gianluca Suardi - Digital Content Creator

Who will be on the podium?

1. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
2. Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
3. Enric Mas (Movistar Team)

Who else will be in the top 10?

Looking at the route, it’s clearly a Tour de France for pure climbers. So in the top 10 we will see strong mountain goats like Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich), Rigoberto Urán (EF Education-EasyPost), Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla), Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Matteo Jorgenson (Movistar) and Dani Martínez (Ineos Grenadiers). They are all great climbers, and they can stay in the top 10 chasing the leaders but also attacking.

Who will be the breakout rider of the race?

Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën) had a great first part of the season, he looked confident and super-solid. Now he’s ready to impress the world with his climbing abilities.

Which sprinter will dominate?

Fabio Jakobsen (Soudal-Quick Step) really wants and can win several stages, but I think Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan)will break the record.

Who will win the other classifications?

KOM: Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost)
White: Tadej Pogačar
Green: Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma)
Team classification: Bahrain Victorious

What are you most looking forward to in the race?

The unusually hard first week that will shape a dramatic GC already before the first rest day!

Nancy Arreola - Digital Content Manager

Who will be on the podium?

1. Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
2. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
3. David Gaudu (Groupama FDJ)

Velo Collection/Getty Images

David Gaudu will be looking to improve on his 4th-placed finish at the 2022 Tour de France

Who else will be in the top 10?

After winning the Giro d’Italia last year, Jai Hindley will come to this Tour with a lot of ambition. The course suits the Bora-Hansgrohe rider and he should be able to finish close to the podium. I also have high hopes for Spaniards Enric Mas (Movistar) and Mikel Landa (Bahrain Victorious), both of whom are very experienced and will benefit from the fewer kilometres of time trial offered in this year’s edition. Other riders to watch out for include Ben O'Connor (AG2R Citroën), Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla), Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich) and Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers).

Who will be the breakout rider of the race?

Without a clear leader in the team, I think it's the perfect time for Carlos Rodríguez to come out of his shell and show us what he's made of. The 22-year-old Spaniard rubbed shoulders with the best at last year's Vuelta a España and could surprise his rivals at the world’s biggest race.

Which sprinter will dominate?

Fabio Jakobsen (Soudal-Quick Step) and Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) should be able to dominate the flat stages. And here's my unpopular opinion, I don't think Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan Team) will be able to match the speed of the strongest sprinters this year and his tally for Tour de France wins will remain 34.

Who will win the other classifications?

KOM: Thibaut Pinot (Groupama FDJ)

White: Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)

Green: Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck)

Team: Jumbo Visma

What are you most looking forward to in the race?

The whole route looks incredible, but the first stages in the Basque Country are the ones that I look forward to the most. There is nothing like the atmosphere that exists on the Basque roads, they really are the biggest fans of cycling on the planet. We could also see actual ambushes from day one, which must be exciting for those of us enjoying the Tour from home.

Matilda Price - Racing News Editor

Who will be on the podium?

1. Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)

2. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)

3. Ben O'Connor (AG2R Citroën)

Who else will be in the top 10?

Whilst the battle for the win seems mainly a two-horse race, this Tour is looking pretty open in terms of who could make it into the top 10. I'm expecting Mr Consistent Enric Mas (Movistar) to be up there, a rider who is perhaps underestimated because he doesn't win all that much, but he goes really well over three weeks to solidify a good finish overall.

A podium might be too big of an ask for Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe) in his first Tour, but a top 10 is definitely within reach. I think Rigoberto Urán (EF Education-EasyPost) will sneak in, and I'm expecting Jumbo-Visma to place a second rider in the top 10 in their support of Vingegaard, maybe Sepp Kuss.

Who will be the breakout rider of the race?

Not an overall rider, but I've got an eye on Israel-Premier Tech's Corbin Strong. The young Kiwi comes from the track, but has really been developing his sprint on the road, and has had some really good finishes going into the Tour. In the absence of Chris Froome, Israel have a varied team, ready to stage hunt, and if they can get Strong into a good position, he should surprise us with some top fives on the sprint days.

Which sprinter will dominate?

The sprinting at this Tour will be all about Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck). He's been proving all year that he's probably the fastest sprinter in the pack, and he seems to put it together more often than the likes of Caleb Ewan (Lotto Dstny) or even Fabio Jakobsen (Soudal-Quick Step) do. If the cards fall his way, I think Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan) will win the one stage required to break the record he shares with Eddy Merckx. Even without a good lead-out, he's tactically and technically better than his less experienced rivals, which should pay off. But it will just be one big win, rather than a run of success.

Who will win the other classifications?

KOM: Thibaut Pinot (GroupamaFDJ) to go all in and take home another polka-dot jersey

Green: Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) says he’s not targeting but he will win anyway

White: There's no looking past Tadej Pogačar

Team: Jumbo-Visma's strength in depth will earn them the yellow helmets

What are you most looking forward to in the race?

I'm looking forward to the first week the most. The start in Bilbao and the Basque Country looks like the most exciting start we've had in a while, and Basque climbs always seem to produce good racing. Then the trip into the Pyrenees and my favourite region of France will light up the GC super early on. After a slow burn Giro, I'm ready for fireworks from the start of the Tour.

Jim Dwyer - Graphic Designer

Who will be on the podium?

1. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates
2. Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
3. Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)

Who else will be in the top 10?

Half out of hope and half from the sheer depth of the start list (which is mouth-wateringly strong), I think the top 10 will be stacked with the 'nearly-men' contenders, with a good spread across the teams' GC leaders. Mikel Landa (Bahrain Victorious), Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), Dani Martínez (Ineos Grenadiers), Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich), Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla), Enric Mas (Movistar) and Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe) are sure to be battling it out. It’s not the most ground-breaking prediction and is based on the hope no one crashes or is caught out - I mean, there are never any surprises are there?!

Velo Collection/Getty Images

UAE Team Emirates have named Tadej Pogačar and Adam Yates as co-leaders

My expectation is that the top spot GC battle will be fought out by Jumbo and UAE - I think they'll both (need to) burn out their super-domestiques which will cause any hopes of multiple riders for those teams staying up there in the top 10 to be unlikely. There is talk of Adam Yates being co-leader for UAE, but I think a focus on one rider, i.e. Pogačar will be necessary - when it’s so clear how Jumbo are lining up.

Who will be the breakout rider of the race?

Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën) - carrying his Suisse form into the Tour, I think he could get a stage from a break and place highly overall in both the mountains and GC classifications - possibly the latter in Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) style - accidentally regaining time on a big break day.

Which sprinter will dominate?

I think Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty) will win two sprints, as will Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and hopefully Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan) will win at least one stage to stand alone as the record stage winner.

Who will win the other classifications?

KOM: Tadej Pogačar

Green: Jasper Philipsen

White: Tadej Pogačar

Team: UAE Team Emirates

What are you most looking forward to in the race?

I'm hoping for some aggressive toe-to-toe action between the in-form Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma), Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Tom Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers) and Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal-Quick Step), hopefully battling for some stage honours. Stage 1 is looking promising for an early glimpse of who is coming into the race in form.

It’s going to be interesting to see how the points classification plays out - if a sprinter dominates the flat days, what will Mads Pederson (Lidl-Trek), Van Aert and possibly Van der Poel do to challenge at intermediate sprints? I also hope Wout [van Aert] can stay for the entirety of the race and not be called to Daddy duties with the birth of his second child. If Cavendish can get his 35th stage - this would make my Tour regardless of anything else. If he can get on a run of wins it will be something really special!

Pete Trifunovic - Digital Content Creator

Who will be on the podium?

1. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)

2. Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)

3. Enric Mas (Movistar)

Who else will be in the top 10?

For me, the three riders that will make up the podium places at this year’s Tour seem pretty set in stone (even if the order isn’t) without a pedal being pushed in anger. However, determining who will be the best of the rest is another matter.

I feel that the likes of Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe), Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers) and Ben O’Connor (AG2R Citroën) will all benefit from the mountain-heavy route in their bids for top five finishes.

Meanwhile, despite Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates) having the role of ‘co-leader,’ I feel that he will naturally morph into a super-domestique as the race heads through the Alps. Though the Brit claimed two Grand Tour top ten finishes whilst at Ineos, despite not having full leadership responsibilities in either race - so there’s no reason to doubt him here either.

Lidl-Trek seem to be following their new title sponsor’s approach by quietly constructing a strong GC squad that could undercut the competition. Mattias Skjelmose has impressed this season and I could see him pushing for a strong overall finish.

Lastly, and purely on the basis that the home fans need to be given some hope of obtaining that elusive yellow jersey for the first time in over three decades, David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) and Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich) will probably be battling it out amongst the main contenders.

Who will be the breakout rider of the race?

Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) will have a strong race in just his second Grand Tour. He finished 40th at last year’s Giro d’Italia but comes into the race off the back of a first WorldTour stage race title at the Tour de Suisse.

Which sprinter will dominate?

First and foremost, let's address the elephant in the room. Yes, Cavendish will win a stage. Whilst breaking the record on the Champs-Élysées would be a sight to behold - and make the Netflix producers go weak at the knees - I’m hoping he can wrap it up before then. Of course, he’ll face stiff competition, most notably from Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and, in almost unfair circumstances, his lead-out man Mathieu van der Poel. My left-field pick to take his first-ever Grand Tour stage, and at his debut three-week race, is Aussie Sam Welsford (dsm-firmenich).

Who will win the other classifications?

KOM: Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost)
Green: Jasper Philipsen
White: Tadej Pogačar
Team: Ineos Grenadiers

What are you most looking forward to in the race?

All being well, a tearful Mark Cavendish being bombarded by teammates and friends after he confirms, once again, that he is the greatest sprinter to ever grace the sport. For all of the hardship that he has had to overcome in recent years, this will be the perfect last dance for the 38-year-old at a race that he’s set alight for over a decade and a half!

George Poole - Race Writer

Who will be on the podium?

1. Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
2. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
3. Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe)

Who else will be in the top 10?

My pick for the third step of the podium was a toss-up between Jai Hindley and Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates). I went for the former as he will have the full backing of his Bora-Hansgrohe teammates, but I fancy Yates to match his 4th place from the 2016 Tour de France. As a Lancastrian, I will happily predict the two riders from Bury to finish in the top 10, with Adam being joined by his brother Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla)!

Velo Collection/Getty Images

Adam Yates spent four days in the yellow jersey at the 2020 Tour de France

As far as the other five contenders go, you can never go far wrong with predicting a top 6 finish for Enric Mas (Movistar) and Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich), whilst the likes of Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), and Ben O’Connor (AG2R Citroën) are good shouts to accidentally find themselves in the top 10 as a result of final-week stage-hunting. Finally, I’d love to see Groupama-FDJ heartthrobs David Gaudu (or Thibaut Pinot) put in a strong performance over the three weeks, as alongside the enigmatic Marc Madiot, they will undoubtedly provide the best episode of Tour de France: Unchained, once again!

Who will be the breakout rider of the race?

They aren’t the underground picks that I can gain cool points for, but I can’t see past Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën) and Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) being the two shining lights of this year’s Tour away from the big names. Both are clearly in incredible form and will have the freedom from their team to go in search of stage victories. Expect them to be in plenty of breakaways and if I had to pick one to win a stage, I’d opt for Skjelmose!

Which sprinter will dominate?

Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Decuninck) has the look of a whippet on the bike when in sight of the finish line, and I fully expect him to carry his early-season momentum into the Tour de France. Although the likes of Fabio Jakobsen (Soudal-Quick Step) and green jersey-elect Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) may pip him on occasion, Philipsen should win multiple stages at this year’s Tour with the remarkable Mathieu van der Poel as his lead-out man. That being said, I am convinced there is one last stage victory for Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan) at the Tour de France and having grown up watching the greatest sprinter of all time, I would love nothing more than to see him write one last magical chapter to his incredible career.

Who will win the other classifications?

The reason I am backing Jonas Vingegaard to win his second Tour de France title in succession is because, in the high mountains, he is the best climber in the world. As such, he’s my pick to take home the KOM jersey ahead of other hopefuls. Behind him in GC will no doubt be Tadej Pogačar, who can remarkably win his fourth white jersey, whilst the team classification will likely fall to his UAE Team Emirates should Adam Yates and Rafał Majka perform at their best.

What are you most looking forward to in the race?

As will be the case for many fans, I can’t look beyond the incredible few days that are promised to us in the Basque Country at the start of the race. The parcours look perfect for explosive and dynamic racing, the type that might suit a rejuvenated Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal-Quick Step), I might add! The thought of the two-time world champion bringing the yellow jersey back to France is enough to make any cycling fan giddy.

Antoine Maret - Digital Content Creator

Who will be on the podium?

1. Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
2. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
3. Mikel Landa (Movistar)

The first two are obvious. Vingegaard was mega-dominant at the Critérium du Dauphiné, yet it feels like he is still getting better every day. If Pogacar hasn’t changed his tactics since last year, I don’t think he stands a chance.

Landa is a dark horse for GC, but I think he’ll definitely perform. He’ll build up confidence in the Basque Country, and will keep a low profile until the Alps, where he can be the last human standing behind Pogačar and Vingegaard. He doesn’t win much - or at all - but he’s in his best season since 2017 (when he rode both the Giro and Tour and carried Chris Froome to his fourth Tour victory). Behind the two superstars, it’ll be a really close game. To me, Landa, with his consistency and his modesty, can be the one who beats them all on the line. The only trouble is, he’s better as a domestique or a co-leader than as a sole leader. Can he overcome this?

Who else will be in the top 10?

Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) is one of the most consistent GC riders and one of the few who doesn’t ride for 3rd place. He might take a few punches because of his boldness, but he’s still the third or fourth-best climber in the race. With Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates) it’s hard to identify his role when Pogačar can ride solo at all times. I rank him with Enric Mas (Movistar) on the climbs. He’s a bit more punchy, but he’ll have to work at some point, and he’ll be disadvantaged from this. I expect a consistent performance by the Spaniard. He lacks punch but can hold with the best on long climbs. He always has a ‘jour sans,’ but I think he can avoid this now.

Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe) is an extremely talented climber, but I doubt the climate of constant attacks that Pogačar and Vingegaard will create will benefit him. David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) has shown excellent form in Paris-Nice, and has changed the way he rides. He didn’t look that good on the Dauphiné, and might suffer in the Basque Country stages, but he’ll be close to the podium guys on week three.
With Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich) it’s either him or Guillaume Martin (Cofidis), but the Puy de Dôme and the Col de la Loze are really suited for pure climbers like the dsm-firmenich leader. That’s the kind of stage that he won’t miss as he did on the Col du Granon last year. Ben O’Connor (AG2R Citroën) is dependent on two things to enter the top five: really bad weather on a day where he feels great, and the freedom to go in the breakaway when he's 5-10 minutes behind on GC. I’d say he’ll only have one of the two.

Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) has had to change his plans after being sick just before the start of the Giro. He looked good at the Dauphiné, and is on track with some of those climbers.

Who will be the breakout rider of the race?

I would have said Fred Wright (Bahrain Victorious), even though we could say he was already the breakout rider last year. I’ll go for Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Pro Cycling). This 2023 route is perfect for him. He’s got a good sprint and can hold with the best on very steep finishes. I'm pretty sure he can score a stage or two if he’s outside the top 10 on GC. Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën)is one to watch as well - even though he looks like a one-week stage race contender rather than a Grand Tour champion.

Which sprinter will dominate?

I don’t think Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan) will break the record. The difference in level with the Giro d’Italia is too important, and Cavendish needs a really complicated set of circumstances in order to win. Though, I don’t think there will be a rider dominating all sprint stages. Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) might take two wins, while Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma), Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco AlUla), Fabio Jakobsen (Soudal-Quick Step), Caleb Ewan (Lotto Dstny) and Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) will take one each.

Who will win the other classifications?

KOM: Jonas Vingegaard
White: Tadej Pogačar
Green: Wout van Aert
Team: Jumbo-Visma

What are you most looking forward to in the race?

The Puy de Dôme is a no-brainer. It’s a climb with no equivalent in France. It’s a place where you can feel the weight of cycling history. The only downside, there will be no crowds on the climb. But for ambience, I count on the first stages in Basque Country!

Logan Jones-Wilkins - US Writer

1. Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
2. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
3. Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe)

Who else will be in the top 10?

The battle for the remaining six or so spots in the top ten beyond Vingegaard, Pogačar, Hindley and Ben O’Connor (AG2R Citroën) is very deep. There is home hope in David Gaudu, but Groupama-FDJ seems to be in a bit of a crisis and I distinctly remember the inconsistency of Gaudu last year. He seemed lucky to get fourth and was in better stead leading up to that Tour. Additionally, you have Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost). Carapaz has more GC experience than all but one of the top ten hopefuls, but he too had a shocker of a Dauphiné and would be better off chasing stages with his team of crafty stage hunters. It would absolutely be better for the race that way.

Velo Collection/Getty Images

Richard Carapaz will be hoping to replicate the form that saw him finish 3rd at the 2021 Tour de France

Ineos Grenadiers have the other experienced GC rider in the hunt for a top ten in Egan Bernal, but he has obvious question marks surrounding his durability over three weeks given the timeline of his recovery. That being said, he is a winner of the Tour and is still riding for Ineos. Even in down years, they slide riders into the high echelons of the Tour's top ten. Daniel Martínez is the other option, with maybe an outside chance from Carlos Rodríguez, but I have questions around both riders. Nevertheless, one of their riders will be in the top ten come Paris because “the Tour is the Tour” and Ineos is Ineos.

So where does that leave us? In my estimation, we have three to four more openings, depending if Gaudu can muster the strength of Marc Madiot’s speeches and Enric Mas (Movistar) can keep it consistent. I am going to give a nod to Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), Wilco Kelderman (Jumbo-Visma) and one more rider to fill out the top ten. See the section below for that answer.

Who will be the breakout rider of the race?

Matteo Jorgenson (Movistar) is a long-term prospect, a slow burner, who just keeps getting better. After four 4th-placed finishes at stages last year and strong performances this spring, the Movistar man is poised to level up at this year's Tour with either a stage win or a top ten GC finish. Is it too much to ask for both? I personally think it will be the year he gets it done.

Which sprinter will dominate?

I see this being the year where Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) takes another step forward. Last year was a bump up even without a good Mathieu van der Poel to assist him, and as we saw this spring, when Jasper has his Dutch pilot fish it is often “night night” for everyone else. That being said, a Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan) with his back to the wall always comes good, and even though his team is fit together in an untested and awkward way, it is only one stage win we are talking about here. I think (read: hope) he gets it done, probably in Paris.

Who will win the other classifications?

Green: Jasper Philipsen
KOM: Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ)
White: Do I even need to say it? Urška Žigart’s boyfriend (Tadej Pogačar), of course!

What are you most looking forward to in the race?

The return to the Puy de Dôme. More on that later, but in so many ways it is a fundamental part of the romance and drama of the Tour and has been missing for too long. Don’t let the watts per kilo brigade tell you it will be lame, history says it will be…punchy.

The Tour de France begins in the Basque Country on Saturday 1 July, with each stage live and ad-free on GCN+ (territory restrictions apply). Bilbao promises one of the most exciting Grand Départs in years to kick off the 110th Tour de France, where the predictory powers of our editorial team will be put to the test. Make sure not to miss it.