Analysing Ineos Grenadiers' Tour de France longlist

With the Tour de France just over a week away Ineos Grenadiers are putting the finishing touches to their eight-man team.

The final squad is set to be announced early next week, while the team has been busy whittling down a longlist of around 12 riders after recent outings at the Tour de Suisse and the Critérium du Dauphiné.

The team has not made their official longlist public, but GCN understands that there are currently a dozen athletes on the list and that the riders certain of a place on the team for the July 1 Grand Départ include Egan Bernal, Tom Pidcock, Carlos Rodríguez and Dani Martínez. The final places are between Jonathan Castroviejo, Omar Fraile, Michal Kwiatkowski, Luke Rowe, Connor Swift, Jhonatan Narváez, Pavel Sivakov and Ben Turner  - although the latter recently crashed out of the Dauphiné. Magnus Sheffield and Ethan Hayter had been in the running for possible Tour spots but recent crashes and subsequent injuries ended their hopes of making the cut. Filippo Ganna and Luke Plapp are not currently in consideration.

Although this is a team steeped in Tour de France heritage, the Jim Ratcliffe-backed entity finds itself at something of a crossroads ahead of July. Once the most dominant Tour de France team on the planet thanks to six wins in seven years, the British squad head into this year’s race without a true designated contender for the yellow jersey. This isn’t an anomaly either: they were in a similar position twelve months ago until Geraint Thomas stepped up and revived his own GC career with a fine third place in Paris. On paper, the team can reproduce another podium performance but it will be tough, and it’s not even clear who the eight-man squad will be working for. Dani Martínez started the year strongly with a win in the Volta ao Algarve but was inconsistent at the recent Dauphiné, where he could only manage 23rd overall. Carlos Rodríguez broke a collarbone at Strade Bianche earlier this year but bounced back with ninth overall in the Dauphiné, a result that showed his form is at least improving. The 22-year-old was seventh in last year’s Vuelta a España but there’s a big leap between a top 10 in Spain and becoming a genuine contender for the Tour in less than 12 months. And then there’s Egan Bernal, who is slowly but surely coming back to his former level.

After such a devastating crash at the start of 2022, just arriving at the Tour is a major victory in itself for the 2019 winner. His comeback has been difficult but in the last few months he has started to show signs of improvement, with a few top 10s and a gutsy 12th overall at the Dauphiné. Still, he’s not in the conversation for a second yellow jersey.

Over at the Tour de Suisse - a race that Ineos Grenadiers has won every year it’s been run since 2019 - the team failed to post a rider inside the top 20, with too many of their stars yet to show any signs of their highest level. Part of that result, however, can be taken with a great deal of empathy after the tragic death of Gino Mäder. Who could blame any rider for not treating the result of that race as the most important aspect under such straining and emotional circumstances? 

That said, Ineos Grenadiers will still need to impress on the watching public that they’re not just heading to the Tour de France in the hope of finding late form and pulling another rabbit out of the hat like they did last year with Thomas’s podium, Pidcock’s impressive Alpe d’Huez stage win, and victory in the teams’ classification. This year’s GC complexion is made even fuzzier with the fact that both Martínez and Rodríguez have been linked with moves to rival teams in 2024.

It’s fair to say that while Pidcock is an undoubted star and a possible Grand Tour contender in the future, he’s not built his season around July, and as such he shouldn’t be leaned on for a GC challenge. Sivakov is an interesting wildcard, should he make the final Tour selection. He wasn’t down to ride the Tour initially but after leaving the Giro d’Italia early he’s in contention for a place at next week’s Grand Départ in Bilbao. He too is destined to leave the team after the completion of his contract at the end of the year, but one needs to also remember that even if a number of riders are set to leave they still have a duty to their teams, and themselves, to achieve the best possible result this year. Adam Yates showed that was possible last year when he finished in the top 10, supported Thomas, all while suffering with illness and with his departure from the team all but confirmed.

Much of the backdrop surrounding the team at present implies that there is a major clear out in process. While Thomas and Rowe are set to sign contract extensions for 2024, the roster for next year looks incredibly thin at present. What’s more, the team isn’t being linked to a wave of signings right now, which implies that they’re either keeping their cards incredibly close to their chest or they’re waiting on the season and transfer market to play out. Meanwhile, those rumours surrounding a move for Remco Evenepoel resurfaced again at the Giro d’Italia, begging the question as to whether the clear out could be linked with a move for the Belgian.

So while there might be an element of uncertainty around Ineos and their Tour de France team, fans of the squad certainly shouldn’t lose hope. This is still one of the best teams in the world, and their Grand Tour pedigree, while not where it was four years ago, is still impressive. One must remember that the team sent a stronger team to the Giro than the Tour this year, and from a strategic point of view that made complete sense and nearly earnt them the win.

The likes of Hayter and Sheffield will bounce back, while Josh Tarling, Plapp and others still represent a young and highly promising crop of riders. This year it’s more than likely that at least one from the Ineos Tour team steps up and delivers a major result. Right now though, it’s just not clear who that might be.