Tour de France: Tallying the Stocks

With the Basque Country, Puy de Dôme and the Pyrenees in our rearview mirror, the Tour de France has delivered a bumper edition so far. While the race is only at the first rest day we have enough narratives to write an almanack. From a breathtaking Grand Départ, hotly-contested sprint finishes and an unusual number of shake-ups in the general classification, the first rest day is needed for riders and fans alike.

Whether it be Mark Cavendish’s departure, the fall and rise of Tadej Pogačar or the dominance of Jasper Philipsen, there has been a lot to keep track of throughout the first nine days of this year’s race. So, as the collective cycling community catches its breath before the start of the second week, it is a chance to reflect on the nine stages that were, look forward to the stages to come and highlight some of the riders who are trending up while asking questions for some of those riders who have missed the mark thus far.

George Poole's riders whose stock is up!

Victor Lafay (Cofidis)

Where better to start than with the man who surprised everyone on the Tour de France’s opening weekend? Victor Lafay came into the race as part of a subtly strong Cofidis squad, who with the likes of Byran Coquard, Guillaume Martin and Axel Zingle, were in pursuit of a first Tour de France stage victory since 2008.

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Victor Lafay ends 15 years of hurt for Cédric Vasseur’s Cofidis team

Unlike the last 14 Tours de France since Sylvain Chavanel’s win on stage 19 of the 2008 Tour, the French squad would not have to wait long to taste glory. After an impressive opening stage that saw him match pre-race favourites Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) and Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) on the final climb, Lafay sprung a perfectly-timed attack on stage 2 to take the spoils.
A victory in a Grand Tour was nothing new to Lafay, but winning from the front of a very motivated group of GC contenders at the Tour de France is a different ball game to his stage win from the breakaway at the 2021 Giro d’Italia. If his ride on stage 1 did not do enough to impress potential suitors, a surprise attack under the flamme rouge on stage 2, to foil the likes of Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) and Tom Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers), will have done his reputation no harm.
Out of contract with Cofidis at the end of the season, Lafay has been strongly linked with a move to Ineos Grenadiers for 2024 – a connection that long predates the Tour de France. At 27 years of age, the Frenchman should be entering his peak years and a move to Ineos would make sense as they realign their ambitions in a period where they don’t have a pre-eminent champion.

Yet before that, Lafay might not be done flying the flag for Cofidis. Over an hour behind on GC, Lafay will have plenty of flexibility to enter breakaways over the final two weeks of the Tour and should not be discounted from taking a second stage victory.

Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers)

Of the top 5 in the GC following stage 9, the most surprising name is that of Ineos Grenadiers’ young Spaniard, Carlos Rodríguez. At only 22 years of age, Rodríguez’s debut appearance at the Tour has been sparkling as he sits in fourth place after nine days of racing. This is even more impressive given it is only the second Grand Tour he has ever raced.

Making his debut over three weeks at last year’s Vuelta a España, Rodríguez performed more than admirably to finish seventh at the end of the race, with established riders like Ben O’Connor (AG2R Citroën), Rigoberto Urán (EF Education-EasyPost) and Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe) rounding out the top 10 behind him. This time around, it is Hindley who is Rodríguez’s closest rival for the podium in Paris.

Despite losing time to the Australian on stage 5 as Hindley went up the road in the breakaway, Rodríguez responded well to the infernal pace on the Puy de Dôme to hover amongst the likes of Vingegaard and Pogačar, whilst the Bora-Hansgrohe leader dropped behind. The gap may have only been 14 seconds over the finish line, but it swung the momentum back in favour of the Spaniard.

A top-five finish would be a great achievement come Paris for Rodríguez, but don’t rule out a slot on the podium.

Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe)

Although Rodríguez and co. can take solace in the 12 stages that remain in their battle for the final step of the podium, they will all admit that the first blow was landed by Bora-Hansgrohe’s Jai Hindley. The Australian and his teammates pulled off the biggest coup of the race when the 2022 Giro d’Italia champion managed to infiltrate the breakaway and ride into the yellow jersey with a stage 5 victory.
Despite Hindley’s illustrious Giro palmarés, this is the first time he has ever raced the Tour de France and as such, ambitions heading into the race were understandably tempered. To have already worn the yellow jersey and won a stage, his debut must already have surpassed all expectations and whilst his time in yellow lasted only a day, the time he gained on his rivals for third was not insignificant.

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Jai Hindley raises his arms to celebrate his stage 5 victory and accompanying yellow jersey

Hindley was among a host of riders on stage 6 who missed out on the Jumbo-Visma express that saw Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar go clear of the reduced peloton on the Col du Tourmalet midway through the day, as the Australian watched his race lead disappear up the road. But the 27-year-old displayed his class on the final climb to Cauterets – where only Pogačar rode quicker – as well as on the Puy de Dôme, where he rode his own pace in order to limit his losses.

With a handsome gap of 1:42 to fourth-placed Rodríguez, Hindley stands as the firm favourite to finish on the podium in Paris.

Logan Jones-Wilkins' riders whose stock is up!

Matteo Jorgenson (Movistar)

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In words we did not expect to write before the race, Matteo Jorgenson overcame a bee sting to flourish on the Puy de Dôme

Before the Puy de Dôme, Matteo Jorgenson’s stock could easily have been marked as down. In fact, his whole team was on something of a doom spiral after they lost their podium hopeful, Enric Mas (Movistar), in a stage 1 crash. Since then, the team has been scrambling to find their new, alternative footing.

Jorgenson came into the Tour with the clear marching orders to be predominately by the side of Enric Mas, while his personal goals would stay peripheral. Even still, Jorgenson’s personal capabilities have shown this spring and it seemed likely that stages or a top ten on GC were well within reach. Yet, after the two days in the Pyrenees Jorgenson had ridden an anonymous race without any stage placings and shipping 48 minutes on GC.

Fear not, Jorgenson seemed to be simply saving himself for something special. On stage 9 to the famous and feared Puy de Dôme, Jorgenson went from anonymous to undeniable, with his solo attack with just shy of 50km to go. On a sweltering day in central France, Jorgenson was flawless in his effort to steal the march on his breakaway companions and it looked like he was bound for his first stage win after three top-five placings at the Tour last year.

Alas, Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech) and his very particular set of skills were lurking behind and saw the Canadian overtake a flagging Jorgenson in the last 400m. In the end, the American was overtaken by two other riders, deflated by losing the lead so late, and came across the line fourth – again. But things seem to be heading in the right direction for Jorgenson and for a well-rounded climber who is out of the GC picture, options to improve that placing are numerous in the last two weeks of the Tour. A couple of tweaks in tactics and a stroke of luck are all that is needed to find that elusive stage victory.

Matej Mohorič (Bahrain Victorious)

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With his strong lead-outs and performance on stage 9, Matej Mohorič has fired a warning shot to those who may find themselves in a breakaway with the Slovenian

This is more a preemptive pick than one that is based upon the results of week one, but frankly for the litany of breakaway men at the Tour who are not out-and-out climbers, the offering has been meagre. For the former Milan-San Remo winner Matej Mohorič (Bahrain Victorious), however, signs of a return to form are there and week two behinds plenty of opportunities for the Slovenian powerhouse to return to his Tour stage-winning ways. Thus, I suggest you buy stock now.

What jumped out about Mohorič throughout the early stages of the Tour was his consistency, most significantly in the lead-outs for teammate Phil Bauhaus, who has exceeded expectations thus far in the sprints - in no small part to positioning - and on the Puy de Dôme, where he finished third on the stage ahead of Jorgenson. For a while on the twisting volcano, it looked like the Slovenian classics-man might even come away with the win far from his favoured terrain.

If Mohorič is doing that on the Puy de Dôme, imagine what he could do on the rolling terrain of week two. As shown in 2021, the results for the other competitors might be devastating. Pair him with fellow teammate Fred Wright, who has shown promising form and comes into the race as the freshly-crowned British national champion, Bahrain Victorious seem more likely than not to confirm its victorious status over the next 12 days.

Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck)

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Mathieu van der Poel has been an ever-present in Jasper Philipsen’s domineering victories

Now for the curve ball. Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), for many, might be disappointing at the Tour this year. Nevertheless, I see this as a reductive view. Van der Poel, in lieu of personal success, has solidified a new tool in his bag and stamped his authority on the race with three fantastic lead-outs for his team’s dynamite sprinter, Jasper Philipsen. After years of his own bedazzling exploits, the ability of Van der Poel to be a perfect teammate has been refreshing and adds value to a rider who is already one of the most valuable in cycling.

Furthermore, Van der Poel has only really let one true opportunity to hunt his own stages go in stage 2. Beyond phoning it in on the Jaizkibel, the Classics riders have not had their time to shine. In week two, however, that flips. With Philipsen far ahead in the green jersey competition and parcours that match the strengths of the bigger, powerful breakaway riders, it seems as if we are at the precipice of a return to the favourites of the spring.

George Poole's riders whose stock is down…

Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal-Quick Step)

I preface these words with the awareness that Julian Alaphilippe may be waiting until the Tour’s final two weeks to come into his own, but the Frenchman has looked a shadow of his former self at the Tour de France so far. It is sad, but I fear that Alaphilippe may be suffering from what I like to call Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich) syndrome - or the unforgiving hand of modern cycling.
Bardet, a podium finisher in 2016 and 2017, is adamant that he is a stronger rider six years on, and yet the 32-year-old has shown little in the way of being able to challenge Vingegaard and Pogačar for the top step in Paris. Put simply, Bardet syndrome is to be knocked down a peg or two by a sport that has become remarkably stronger. For Bardet, this means his hopes of repeating his second place from 2016 appear unrealistic, whilst, for Alaphilippe, it has shown itself in being unable to climb with the best riders in the peloton.

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As popular as ever, the cycling world hopes for the renaissance of Julian Alaphilippe when the Tour arrives in the Alps

A two-time world champion, six-time Tour de France stage winner and fifth-placed finisher in the 2019 edition, Alaphilippe used to be able to climb with the sport’s upper echelon. Admittedly, he did not have the consistency in the high mountains to sustain being a GC rider, but on his day he was there. Furthermore, having suffered from crashes and misfortune over the last couple of years, Alaphilippe’s lack of major results could be explained away.

But the Soudal-Quick Step rider came into this race having enjoyed a seemingly smooth period of training and racing. Yet his ambitions for the Grand Départ in the Basque Country fell flat and he has yet to show any promise of winning a stage. I am of the opinion that there are few finer sights in cycling than watching Alaphilippe put on a show for his adoring crowd, but as of the first rest day, his stock is down.

Ben O’Connor (AG2R Citroën)

Flourishing in his first season with AG2R Citroën in 2021, Ben O’Connor won a mountainous stage of the Tour de France and finished fourth overall, sparking excitement amongst the French squad as to what might come next. As was documented in the recent Tour de France: Unchained series on Netflix, the second act for O’Connor and AG2R in France ended in abandonment in 2022 following a nasty crash.

In turn, their attention pirouetted to this year’s race and another push for the top five by the 27-year-old. But as it seems to so often do, bad luck has befallen the Australian and given him a mountain to climb already. Suffering from a combination of misfortune and poor form that have already ended his GC ambitions, O’Connor endured another tough day in the saddle on stage 9 and the momentum appears to be going in the wrong direction for him and his team.

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Ben O’Connor rues more lost time at the end of stage 6

For any rider whose GC ambitions have been derailed by the end of the first week, their goals flip quickly in order to chase fresh goals such as a stage victory. For the time being, however, it appears as though O’Connor needs to focus on finding his legs. The Australian has the class and pedigree to bounce back and flourish in weeks two and three, but as of now, his Tour de France can only be counted as a disappointment.

Dani Martínez (Ineos Grenadiers)

Dani Martínez and his Ineos Grenadiers team will have hoped for a lot more than he has been able to show over the first nine days of racing. Heading into the Tour de France with the opportunity to test himself on GC for the first time since joining from EF Education-EasyPost ahead of 2021, Martinez had a free role at a team where that is rare. The Colombian, however, leaked over ten minutes in the first two stages, which put the writing on the wall for his GC ambitions.
It has been the tale of Martínez’s time with Ineos Grenadiers, which began in such promising fashion by helping Egan Bernal win the 2021 Giro d’Italia and finishing fifth himself in the process, but has since descended into a critical lack of consistency that appears set to see him leave the team at the end of the season.

The most frustrating aspect of this tale is that Martínez is a rider with all the potential in the world – having the climbing and time trialing abilities which should see him challenging for major stage races – but something is not clicking. The 2021 Giro is a highlight of the 27-year-old’s career, as is his victory on stage 13 of the 2020 Tour de France, however, he will need to build on these successes sooner rather than later.

Finishing seventh on stage 5, Martínez enjoyed his first taste of a breakaway in this year’s race and showed glimpses of returning to his usual levels. Whether it is helping teammates Rodríguez and Pidcock as they aspire for the top five, or enjoying his own opportunities from the break, the pressure will be on Martínez to improve before the last flag is dropped at the Tour.

Logan Jones-Wilkins' riders whose stock is down…

David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ)

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David Gaudu struggled again on the Puy de Dôme, to the disappointment of the French faithful

Teams should not be built around an eighth-place finish in the GC. Yet that is exactly what Groupama-FDJ has on their hands. To summarise, Groupama have: a team leader with dying prospects of a podium result; a universally loved stage hunter who seems to be saddled by the duty of helping their floundering GC hope; two young French talents in Lenny Martinez and Romain Grégoire sat at home; and an unselected French sprinter who has had results at high profile races across the calendar, including the Tour de France. All of these decisions seem to stem from the demands of David Gaudu and the expectation that he could grow from his fourth-place finish last year.

Clearly, he has not. While leadership and Marc Madiot are at least in part to blame, some of the responsibility must lie with Gaudu himself.

There is, obviously, ample time for Gaudu to climb back into the GC fight for the podium. He has said in the past that as Grand Tours unfold, he gets better. But, conversely, there is a clear pecking order that has a number of very capable riders in line ahead of him to find their way onto the podium. With the cluster of rivals ahead of him on GC, and with at least Thibaut Pinot and Valentin Madouas available to fight for stage wins, it seems time for Gaudu to cut his GC losses and look for mountain breakaways.

Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)

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With his GC ambitions derailed, Skjelmose was allowed a somewhat easy ride up the Puy de Dôme alongside teammate, Mads Pedersen

The Tour de Suisse seems like a long time ago. Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), the winner of the pre-Tour dress rehearsal, seems to be showing the signs of the time that has passed. After a fighting performance on the opening two days in the Basque Country, the Danish champion has slipped out of the GC as he heads into the second week of the race at nearly 30 minutes behind Vingegaard. For Skjelmose, like O’Connor, Martínez and even Gaudu, the gig is up and it's time to focus on stages.

Skjelmose is certainly able to win stages over the last couple of weeks at the Tour, but that is becoming an increasingly competitive bunch. There are only 12 stages left to compete for and by going through the parcours of each, we can truly see how few opportunities each type of rider has left.

For Skjelmose, there are five chances left for a climber like himself. With the GC battle raging, conventional knowledge suggests some of those will be snagged by Pogačar or Vingegaard. What is left will be sorted in part by climbing legs and finishing speed - things that Skjelmose had in spades in Switzerland - but also through the lottery that is breakaway racing. Thus, Skjelmose will be hard-pressed to find the success that he was hoping for at the start of the Tour.

Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco-AlUla)

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Dylan Groenewegen: so close, yet so far. Will he find his way to the front before Paris?

In all fairness, Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco AlUla) is a representative for a number of sprinters that have failed to live up to their billing in this Tour. While part of that is simply down to the speed of Jasper Philipsen and his pilot fish Van der Poel, part of this is that Groenewegen seems to be just slower than he has been. See stage 7, for example.

Groenewegen had the lead-out to put him in the wheels he needed to be, but compared to the pace of Philipsen, Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan) and Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty), he wasn’t able to match. Conventionally, Groenewegen is among the sprinters often referred to as the fastest in the bunch, but not this year.

Groenewegen still has time to find redemption and he is functioning with half a team, as Simon Yates requires a healthy dose of support in his bid for the podium. Plus, with Groenewegen showing climbing form on the challenging run into the stage 8 finale, as the race wears on he might be more durable than the other sprinters in his cohort. With Cavendish gone as well, Groenewegen has one less rival to contend with.

Nonetheless, Philipsen seems to be going nowhere slow and will be a hard rider to beat in the remaining sprint finishes. Groenewegen will need to be ready and able to capitalise if he is off the mark. The jury is out if he can.