Giro d’Italia: Ranking the top 10 contenders

Tadej Pogačar will start the first men's Grand Tour of the season as the overwhelming favourite, but he'll face stiff competition. Here are our ten GC favourites for the Giro d'Italia

08:22, Thursday 2nd May 2024

Daniel Benson

Editor in Chief

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Geraint Thomas, Tadej Pogačar and Cian Uijtdebroeks will all be aiming at the GC

The 2024 Giro d’Italia kicks off the men’s Grand Tour season with what could be one of the most one-sided races in memory.

For many, Tadej Pogačar is all-but certain to win the first Grand Tour of the season but, while his credentials for the out-right favourite tag are unquestionable, the Slovenian won’t have it all his own way in what has traditionally been the most unpredictable of the Grand Tours.

Even looking beyond the weather and other curveballs that the race can throw up, there are several would-be GC contenders who will be chomping at the bit to haul themselves onto a Grand Tour podium, and seize on any potential weakness shown by the big favourite.

From Pogačar and last year’s runner up Geraint Thomas to up-and-coming star Cian Uijtdebroeks, here are 10 riders who we expect to battle it out for the GC at the Giro d’Italia.

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Top 10 contenders for the 2024 Giro d'Italia

1. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)

There hasn’t been such a clear-cut favourite at a men’s Grand Tour in decades and Tadej Pogačar certainly starts with all the pressure and expectancy firmly on his shoulders heading into the Giro d’Italia. He’s the best climber, the best time trialist, and the best all-around athlete in the race. He can win from almost every scenario conceivable and the route is designed with the Slovenian’s characteristics in mind, with a glut of time trial kilometres peppered with stages in the mountains that will help to keep his powder dry for the Tour de France in July.

The team around Pogačar is functional rather than fearsome but the UAE Team Emirates management picked wisely in selecting a posse of riders who can control a race rather than break it for three weeks. This really is Pogačar’s race to lose.

That said, he’s lost races before, and his naivety in 2022 was sorely punished at the Tour de France before 2023 saw him humbled by an unstoppable Jonas Vingegaard for a second straight year. There’s no Vingegaard in Turin for the start of the Giro, however, and his rivals will have to rely on a combination of luck and fate to stop what looks like an inevitable outcome.

2. Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers)

Speaking to a rival sports director last year, they pondered whether Geraint Thomas’ second place in the Giro d’Italia behind Primož Roglič was the final wring of the towel in the Welshman’s Grand Tour career but the veteran has returned for another tilt in 2024.

The 37-year-old is the most accomplished Grand Tour rider on the list behind Pogačar and he certainly has the experience and know-how when it comes to three-week racing. His Grand Tour career in 2022 and 2023 probably doesn’t get the credit it deserves, but he’s very much the anti-Pogačar on this list. Rather than racing with explosive power, Thomas relies on his diesel engine, race craft and pacing abilities to limit his losses when he’s put under pressure. It’s a tactic that almost netted him the Giro win last year but if he makes the podium this time around, it will be deemed a success.

The Welshman certainly has the strongest team in the race at his disposal but one wonders where within the route Ineos can flex that muscle and put Pogačar under real pressure.

3. Ben O’Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale)

Ben O'Connor rode to second overall at the Tour of the Alps

After two disappointing appearances at the Tour de France, the Australian heads back to the Giro d’Italia - the Grand Tour where he first announced himself on the scene as a three-week racer back in 2018. Since then the Decathlon leader has won a Giro stage, finished fourth in the Tour and, of late, become a reliable and key rider over weeklong stage races. He finished second in both the UAE Tour and the Tour of Alps, with a fifth overall in Tirreno-Adriatico thrown in for good measure.

His rediscovered confidence has been a factor in his current level but at 28 years old he’s also coming to his peak. Of course, there’s always the suggestion that his fourth in the Tour came through a long-range break after initially losing time, and he does have a slight track record in getting sick or crashing, but when O’Connor is in the groove, there aren’t many better stage racers around.

His team are racing incredibly well this season too, and it’s a contract year with several teams interested in the Australian’s signature and his haul of UCI points. A belter of a Giro d’Italia would do his bargaining position no harm at all but what really matters most will be ensuring he has a solid three-week block of racing. He could be Pogačar’s closest challenger and we’ve seen in recent years that the Giro has been kind to Australian Grand Tour riders who haven’t started as the out-and-out favourite.

4. Thymen Arensman (Ineos Grenadiers)

Thymen Arensman didn’t have a great Tour of Romandie but his early season form at the Volta ao Algarve and Tirreno-Adriatico pointed towards a promising Giro d’Italia, and if Geraint Thomas falters then the Dutchman is a worthy understudy. He was sixth last year, after all, and comes into this season out of contract and with no agreed terms at his current employers.

Putting that aside, the 24-year-old is well suited to the Giro route, and his trajectory in stage racing suggests that, if he can keep fit and healthy, then another top-five challenge is possible. Age also dictates that at some point Arensman will overhaul Thomas in the Ineos pecking order, and an incident involving bad luck or poor positioning could easily hasten that alteration over the coming weeks. Arguably there are more accomplished riders on this list, and certainly ones with clearer paths to top-ten success, but Arensman should be looking at the top-five as his next realistic goal within a Grand Tour and this is probably his best chance in 2024.

5. Dani Martínez (Bora-Hansgrohe)

It wasn’t that long ago that Ineos Grenadiers made Martínez their Tour de France co-leader but that role never quite worked out for the Colombian with illness and a lack of form disrupting his progress and halting the momentum he built up after finishing fifth in the Giro and helping Egan Bernal to the win back in 2021.

In fact, his time at Ineos Grenadiers never really lived up to expectations, with fleeting success over a three-year period that promised much but never quite made the grade. A move to Bora-Hansgrohe followed at the start of 2024 and so far the signs have been decent, with a flurry of results at the start of the year followed by a low-key showing at Tirreno-Adriatico.

On paper though, Martinez is one of the best climbers in the race and unlike in previous years, he has no co-leaderhship responsibilities to distract him from the task in hand. He’s a better time trialist than many give him credit for, so the test will be whether he can maintain consistency for three weeks and live with the daily grind that comes with Grand Tour leadership. A stage win and a spell in the top-ten should be the very least of the 28-year-old’s ambitions.

6. Cian Uijtdebroeks (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Losing Wout van Aert to injury is a huge blow for both the Visma-Lease a Bike and Cian Uijtdebroeks. Not only was the Belgian going to target the GC but he was also the perfect foil for Uijtdebroeks’ own lofty ambitions of challenging for top honours. With Van Aert watching from the sofa, Uijtdebroeks will have to go it alone and, although he’ll have the experienced Robert Gesink to point him in the right direction in the mountains, and two time trials where he can gain the upper hand on the pure climbers, it will still be a daunting challenge for the 21-year-old who is still finding his feet after his controversial move from Bora-Hansgrohe over the winter.

Last year’s Vuelta a España result with eighth overall was obviously an important stepping stone though, and the young Belgian will be given time and space to develop, even as the Giro unfolds, so if he can remain in contention through the first week, then he could find his path towards the top-five relatively open. Going deep into that final week of mountain stages will be a major test but Uijtdebroeks has the calibre of a special rider and this could be the making of him as a Grand Tour contender.

7. Romain Bardet (Team dsm-firmenich PostNL)

Romain Bardet rides Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2024

The 33-year-old is out of contract at the end of the year and still toying with the notion of retirement but it’s almost impossible to envisage the climber bowing out without one more valiant Grand Tour effort - either in the Giro d’Italia this month or the Tour de France in July. Frankly, if we could encourage Bardet to do another year, or possibly two, we would because even though he’s not a prolific winner, he’s a charismatic champion and part of a generation that’s slowly slipping through our fingers as time passes by.

The two time trials will unequivocally hurt his GC ambitions this month but there’s still plenty for Bardet to be optimistic about. The first week has mountain tests, and that final week has the potential to blow the race apart. Second in Liege-Bastogne-Liege proves that there’s still plenty of miles still left on the clock and that the enthusiasm is still there. We just have to hope that Bardet isn’t struck with bad luck and misfortune - elements that have plagued him in Grand Tours over the years.

8. Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious)

It says a lot about the state of Italian Grand Tour ambitions that the home nation’s best chance of GC success in this year’s race rests on a 22-year-old debutant, but Tiberi heads into the Giro d’Italia representing a wave of hope for Italy.

To the Bahrain Victorious rider’s credit, he’s been in fine fettle of late, finishing eighth in the Volta a Catalunya and third in the Tour of the Alps, and he has the backing of a team that consistently rides a strong collective when it comes to three-week racing. The two time trials will be major tests but he should distance several pure climbers before a final week that will come down to attrition – both physical and mental.

Tiberi’s trajectory in Grand Tours also points towards success with 18th in last year’s Vuelta a España despite working for his teammates. It wouldn’t be a major surprise to see the Italian pick off a stage and bob around the top 10 before the final week, and then much will depend on who is still left in the race.

9. Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious)

Caruso continues to impress despite his advancing years, and he was fourth on GC last year despite not really featuring in the race for the maglia rosa. He’s a consistent package, capable of following the wheels and limiting his losses but it’s hard to see him generating the sort of momentum that brought him to second place in 2021 and at one point almost threatened Egan Bernal’s grip on the maglia rosa.

The 36-year-old hasn’t registered any significant results yet this season but there won’t be any panic in the Bahrain camp. Caruso will stick to his guns, come through the first half of the race still in contention for a top-10 finish and then probably maintain that position right through to Rome. It will be interesting to see him work alongside Tiberi but assuming the maglia rosa has been settled by the end of the first week it’s highly likely that the Bahrain squad will race for the teams classification and stage wins. A spot on the podium would of course be a welcome bonus.

10. Rafał Majka (UAE Team Emirates)

Although not a GC leader in his own right, Majka has every opportunity to finish inside the top 10 by default at the Giro d’Italia. There’s a shallow pool of GC riders in the race and given the Pole’s climbing exploits one could easily envisage him blowing the race apart for Pogačar in the mountains and then soft pedalling home once several key riders have been jettisoned from the the maglia rosa group. It worked for Adam Yates in the Tour de France last year, and that was a far more competitive field. Perhaps there’s a question about how hard Majka rides the two time trials but once again, that final week could transform the top 10.

For everything you need to know about the 2024 Giro d'Italia, from the history of the race to this year's route and start list, be sure to check out our dedicated race hub.