Tadej Pogačar will attack on the Poggio at Milan-San Remo

Much of the speculation and debate surrounding the build-up to Milan-San Remo has centred around the place and time of Tadej Pogačar’s (UAE Team Emirates) race-defining attack.

Fever-pitch was reached late on Thursday evening when his team sports manager Matxin Joxean Fernández hinted at a possible move on the Cipressa. No rider has attacked on the penultimate climb of the race and hung on for victory in almost 30 years but Fernández suggested that if the nine-minute barrier could be broken on the climb — a feat never achieved — then the race could be irrevocably changed.

Read more: Milan-San Remo: 10 riders to watch

Of course, Pogačar has a short but relevant history when it comes to predicting his race-winning moves. At the start of Strade Bianche a fortnight ago the double Tour de France winner told reporters that he would attack with 80km to go. That prophecy came true, with no other rider able to follow and the Slovenian solo to his first win of the year on his season debut.

At the start of Milan-San Remo, on a brisk Saturday morning, the UAE Team Emirates rider dispelled the notion of attacking on the Cipressa, and instead insisted it would be an assault on the Poggio, the final climb of the race. Whether that in itself was a bluff remains to be seen.

“The ideal distance for a solo is approximately ten times less," he said, referring to his performance in Strade Bianche.

"So 6-8km to go, but I think everyone is thinking the same,” he told reporters.

“It’s pretty clear, and every time we come here as a team like this we want to make it hard on the Cipressa and the Poggio, so it’s pretty obvious that today we’ll try something similar.”

When pressed by former pro, and now Eurosport commentator, Philippe Gilbert as to when his attack would come, Pogačar replied: “On the Poggio.”

Regardless of whether he attacks on the Cipressa or the Poggio, one certainty is that UAE Team Emirates will make the race as hard as possible on the second to last climb. They have stacked their team with climbers in a bid to drop as many riders as possible before the finish, and eliminate rivals and sprinters.

On Thursday evening, Fernández told GCN: “Two years ago Davide Formolo did the climb in 9:30 and only 27 riders were left in the front group. Last year when it was 9:50, there were nearly 70 riders left. This year it’s possible to go under nine minutes."

" In my opinion, no more than 20 riders can do this. It is very complicated and there’s still 22km from the top of the climb but staying away from that point doesn’t just depend on Tadej but also his rivals. Full gas on the Cipressa, full gas to the Poggio, it’s a hard, hard race. but the plan is to win Milan-San Remo. Tadej is a super rider and we have plans for many situations.”

Cipressa or Poggio, it seems the team have a plan for either scenario.

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