Vuelta a España: Top 10 contenders for the overall race

The 2023 Vuelta a España starts in Barcelona this Saturday with a team time trial before concluding three weeks later on September 17 in Madrid. The final Grand Tour of the season promises to be an exciting affair with one of the best Vuelta a España lineups in years and a gripping route that should provide an exciting finale.

Defending champion Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) returns to the race and appears ready to take on the challenge of competing against Jumbo-Visma’s leaders Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič. Both riders have enjoyed excellent seasons, with Vingegaard winning his second consecutive Tour de France in July, and Roglič claiming the Giro d’Italia in May. The Slovenian is looking to enter the record books as the second rider to win four Vuelta titles, while Jumbo-Visma are hoping to make it a clean sweep in this year’s Grand Tours.

Evenepoel, Roglič and Vingegaard aren't the only overall contenders for this year’s Vuelta a España with a star-studded GC cast that also includes Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) and UAE Team Emirates riders Juan Ayuso and João Almeida.

Join us as we run through the overall contenders for the 2023 Vuelta a España.

Jonas Vinegaard (Jumbo-Visma)

Age: 26

Vuelta a España pedigree: One start, back in 2020.

Can he win? Have you watched the Tour de France for the last two seasons? The Dane has been unstoppable and on another level compared to his main rivals - which is quite astonishing given that his principal opposition has been the almost unshakeable Tadej Pogačar. The reigning Tour champion can time trial and climb like no one else, and when it comes to Grand Tour racing he hasn’t had a bad day in years. He’s won every stage race he’s entered this season, bar one, and unlike Roglič, carries an air of invincibility at this point in his career. There’s also a creeping suspicion that he wasn’t even on the limit for most of the Tour de France, which suggests he should be relatively fresh.

What’s stopping him: Despite Vingegaard’s meteoric rise and unflappable dominance he’s still human, and ultimately, beatable. He can crash, get sick and miss the wrong split in a Grand Tour that’s often more unpredictable than both the Giro and Tour combined. He’s also not raced since the Tour, so it’s difficult to gauge just how motivated and hungry he is.

Primož Roglič (Jumbo-Visma)

Age: 33

Vuelta a España pedigree: A three-time winner, he’s looking to break the record and claim a fourth title.

Can he win? The form is clearly there, having snaffled up a gaggle of stage wins and the overall at the recent Vuelta a Burgos. The Slovenian is also well-rested after a summer break following his Giro d’Italia triumph, and he has the motivation to win a race that would slot him into record books as only the second man - after Roberto Heras - to win four Vuelta titles. The route looks ideal, and he knows exactly what it takes to win a Vuelta, or three. It’s also hard to imagine that he’ll roll over immediately and work for Vingegaard, so the first three stages could set the tone for the next few weeks. If Roglič can start well he could have the momentum for the rest of the race. He will need to be aggressive though.

Read more: 'If you want to win the Vuelta a España, you take Sepp Kuss' - Primož Roglič

What’s stopping him: For a start, the Danish guy sitting next to him on the Jumbo-Visma team bus. Honestly, it’s impossible to decipher how the team dynamic will play out during the race but if Vingegaard takes control of the race in the first week then Roglič will have no option but to yield any desires of team leadership.

© Velo Collection (TDW) / Getty Images

Remco Evenepoel fared better than Primož Roglič last year, but the Slovenian was arguably on the comeback trail before crashing out

Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step)

Age: 23

Vuelta a España pedigree: Defending champion

Can he win? The Belgian has the armoury to take on the best that Jumbo-Visma has to offer, and with another year of experience under his belt, he should start this year’s Vuelta both stronger and wiser than twelve months ago. He has an uphill sprint that’s better than Vingegaard’s, and Roglič has shown vulnerability in Grand Tours during several points in his career. Evenepoel also has an entire team at his disposal and doesn’t need to worry about whether a rider in the same jersey is going to attack him.

What’s stopping him: His team are stronger than most commentators suggest but there’s still a gulf in class between this Soudal squad and the likes of Ineos Grenadiers, Jumbo-Visma and UAE Team Emirates. Evenepoel also has a target on his back and could quickly find himself isolated during several phases of the race.

Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers)

Age: 37

Vuelta a España pedigree: One start but nothing to write home about. Yet.

Can he win? The Welshman is enjoying a fine and prolonged Indian summer as his career extends towards yet another contract cycle at Ineos. He may not be the leader the team wanted a couple of years ago but Thomas has shown himself to be more than a worthy GC rider, and frankly, the team are lucky to have him at this point. Since his Tour de France win in 2018 he’s finished second and third at the Tour, and picked up another runners-up spot at the Giro d’Italia, and with no dip in form he should be in the mix over the coming weeks. He has the experience and calmness to succeed, and if he’s in Giro-level condition then he’ll be hard to shake as the Vuelta unfolds. Ineos are stacked with talent to back him up, too.

What’s stopping him: Consistency can get you far in a Grand Tour but ultimately even these drawn-out races are won through moments of brilliance and junctures of weakness, so it’s hard to see where Thomas has the edge over Vingegaard, Roglič, and Evenepoel. He can probably beat one of them through perseverance and talent but it’s a tall order to envisage him mastering all three when it comes to bonus seconds in the mountains.

© Velo Collection (TDW) / Getty Images

For much of the Giro d'Italia, Geraint Thomas looked set to win, but he couldn't overcome Primož Roglič at his best

Enric Mas (Team Movistar)

Age: 28

Vuelta a España pedigree: Three second-place finishes

Can he win? Andy Ruiz, Leicester City, Anna Kiesenhofer, and the 1980 Miracle on Ice - upsets do happen and in comparison to those sporting upsets a Mas win wouldn’t be that shocking. He can climb, he’s got a highly impressive Vuelta record, and he has a point to prove after crashing out of the Tour de France in July. It’s not inconceivable that one or two favourites drop by the wayside, and if Mas has some luck, as well as a considerable amount of form, he could become the first Spanish winner in almost a decade.

What’s stopping him: There’s too much firepower for even the very best version of Mas to deal with. On his day he’s an exceptional rider but he’s not raced in almost two months and GC riders will need to hit the ground running at the Vuelta. If Mas has the perfect race, with no mistakes, then he makes the podium but that’s as high as he will climb this year.

João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates)

Age: 25

Vuelta a España pedigree: fifth on his debut in 2022.

Can he win? Almeida had a breakthrough performance at the Giro d’Italia, taking his first Grand Tour podium after several promising previous displays. He’s a bonafide GC rider with incredible staying power in the mountains, and like Geraint Thomas, he just never knows when he’s beaten. His time trialling is superb deep into a race and at 25 he could still make improvements.

What’s stopping him: Almeida is brilliant at most things but he’s also not the best climber in the race or the best rider against the clock, and while he’s consistent and durable, he’s still not quite among the top favourites for this year’s Vuelta. There’s also the significant matter of sharing leadership with Juan Auyso, who was third in last year’s race. Almeida could definitely vie for the podium but that might be as high as he can reach - this year at least.

Aleksandr Vlasov (Bora-Hansgrohe)

Age: 27

Vuelta a España pedigree: Two starts, with an 11th place overall a few years ago

Can he win? Vlasov’s certainly coming into some form having finished second overall in Burgos earlier this month. On his day he’s an exceptional rider, and Bora has a decent team heading to Barcelona. There’s certainly no pressure, with the Russian rider flying under the radar.

What’s stopping him: It’s impossible to know what version of Vlasov we’ll get on a day-to-day basis, forget week-to-week. Demonstrating consistency has always been an Achilles heel but if you finish fifth in a Tour de France you cannot be written off. Can he win? No, but if he’s at his best then a podium could be within reach.

Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates)

Age: 20

Vuelta a España pedigree: third on his debut in 2022

Can he win? Despite time out due to injury, Ayuso has almost continued where he left off in 2022, with a stage in the Tour de Romandie and second overall and a stage in the Tour de Suisse. He’s only racked up 19 days of action this season but when he’s been fit he’s been a major contender in almost every race he’s started. UAE Team Emirates quite clearly believe in the young Spaniard’s talents and have awarded him with dual leadership, and if the 20-year-old can hit the ground running he could be a serious contender for the red jersey.

What’s stopping him: The stop-start season can’t have helped and one does wonder whether he has the racing base to take on athletes who have a tally of stage races already under their belts. There’s also the question of pressure because unlike in 2022, expectations will be much higher this time around.

© Velo Collection (TDW) / Getty Images

Juan Ayuso matched Tadej Pogačar in finishing on the Vuelta a España podium at the age of 19

Eddie Dunbar (Jayco AlUla)

Age: 26

Vuelta a España pedigree: Debutant

Can he win? The Irish climber was a solid seventh in the Giro d’Italia back in May, despite having a less-than-ideal preparation due to injury. That result in May proved he’d made the right decision in leaving Ineos Grenadiers over the winter and he now leads a team into a Grand Tour for the second time in twelve months. He should be flowing with confidence now and that could carry him into another top-ten or even top-five performance. A stage win would be the icing on the cake but Dunbar is unlikely to challenge for the podium.

What’s stopping him: Dunbar is a fine athlete and could still develop as a leader but this Vuelta field is stacked and with no disrespect to the likeable Irishman he’s not yet proved he can really challenge over three weeks. His fans will counter that with the fact that he never had a chance at Ineos, and that’s fair - but he’s not quite on the level of some of the best GC riders in this field.

Damiano Caruso (Bahrain-Victorious)

Age: 35

Vuelta a España pedigree: One top ten and one stage win

Can he win? With Mikel Landa heading to Soudal Quick-Step, it’s more likely that Caruso will have the support of his Bahrain Victorious team. The Italian was fourth in the Giro d’Italia earlier this year, and while he lacks the punch to trouble the very best pure climbers, he’s another rider who can rise to the challenge of delivering steady performances over the three weeks. He won’t win and he probably won’t podium but he could be hard to shake off.

What’s stopping him: Caruso came close to winning the Giro a couple of years ago but that’s likely to be the closest he ever gets to victory in a Grand Tour. A reliable all-rounder, he doesn’t have the capacity to beat Roglič, Vingegaard or Evenepoel.

We’ll be showing live and on-demand coverage of all 21 stages of this year’s Vuelta a España from Saturday, August 26 to Sunday, September 17, plus daily expert analysis on The Breakaway. Head over to GCN+ now to check the start times of each broadcast so that you don’t miss out on a moment of the action! As always, territory restrictions will apply.

If you head to our Vuelta a España landing page, you will find everything you need to know ahead of the race, including our race preview, the route, start list and individual stage previews. Check it out for all that and more.