The triple leader conundrum - what will Jumbo-Visma do on the Alto de L’Angliru?

In any normal race, a rider attacking and winning a stage to move himself up from third to second and within thirty seconds of the race lead would be an undisputed success. In any normal race, the leader conceding more than a minute to another competitor on a 4km climb would be a clear loss.

But for Jumbo-Visma, this Vuelta a España not a normal race, and what happened today, with the above happening between two teammates, is not a win for one and a loss for the other, but a complex and delicate situation, poised to explode on the race’s most mythical climb.

Despite being two and a half weeks and several big GC stages down - and just days away from Madrid - Jumbo-Visma are remaining coy on what their GC plans are. With Sepp Kuss in red, logic suggests he should be their designated leader, but logic would also suggest that a teammate shouldn’t attack the designated leader.

After Jonas Vingegaard attacked 4km from the finish of stage 16, the big question for both riders was about what this means for Jumbo-Visma’s GC strategy. And like almost every stage, their answers were far from illuminating.

“I don’t know,” Vingegaard said. “Now I just want to enjoy this moment and not think about it.”

There was evidence on the road that Vingegaard was thinking about his move as it happened, speaking into his radio to check if it was okay to attack at that moment, Kuss explained at the finish. Whether that checking in was with Kuss or the team car - and who is ultimately calling the shots - was a question the red jersey side-stepped, but ultimately praised a “smart” and “strong” moved from his teammate.

“I think it’s just an instinct thing. It’s always good to double check, but you have to ride with your instincts, and I think it was a really good moment.”

On his own form, Kuss remained positive, and keen to point out that Tuesday’s stage did not suit him perfectly.

“I’m feeling good still. Today was a really short stage, a really explosive final climb, which isn’t always the best for me but I think I still defended myself pretty well so I’m happy with today.”

It’s true that Kuss defended himself well enough - he remains in red, after all - but the question is from whom, and for how long will he have to keep defending red from his own teammates?

What will happen on the Alto de L’Angliru?

If Jumbo-Visma are in a finely-balanced GC position now, there perhaps isn’t a better climb to shake things up than the Alto de L’Angliru. Coming as the finale to stage 17 in this year’s Vuelta, the Angliru is a climb as feared as it is famed, thanks to its punishing steepness and difficulty.

Officially, the 13.1km climb has an average gradient of 9.5%, but this is brought down by the gentler early slopes. The final ramp is 6.5km with an average of 13.3%, with some pitches that tip over the 20% mark. It’s a challenging climb that leaves nowhere to hide.

“There’s no drafting, there’s no split second decision making, just because it’s a slow speed and such a grind,” Kuss said of the Angliru. “So it’s really a different kind of battle tomorrow.”

Perhaps a different kind of battle is what this race needs to push Jumbo-Visma into making a decision about their GC leadership. But how might things actually play out on the Angliru tomorrow? Jumbo-Visma almost have an abundance of options at their feet, but it’s whether they can settle on one that works and, crucially, all three riders are on board with.

Ride for Kuss

The obvious plan when going into a difficult stage with the red jersey is to defend that jersey, by riding for your leader, in this case Sepp Kuss. Set a hard pace, but not too hard for Kuss, shut down any moves, deliver their leader to the finish, even if it means burning Vingegaard or Roglič’s matches. All in for the rider who is already riding red.

However, this plan is perhaps hard to imagine, given nothing similar has happened so far. Roglič and Vingegaard have ostensibly ridden for Kuss, but not so much to use too much of their own energy, or lose time themselves. Perhaps because they haven’t needed to, perhaps because they haven’t wanted to.

Ride for Kuss, as long as he can follow

Of course, the problem with riding for Kuss arises if he gets in any kind of trouble - perhaps even as a result of his team’s riding. If a rider like Juan Ayuso or Enric Mas attacks, which at this stage in the race they probably should, Jumbo-Visma will have to follow, whether that’s by tagging a rider onto a move or riding hard to bring it back. But both of these rely on a strong Kuss, which remains an unknown - he’s in the lead because of essentially a breakaway effort, not consistently taking time on his rivals. If the American can’t keep up with the pace, or one of his helpers gets a gap following a rival, his lead could very easily be in jeopardy. If Kuss dropped, would Vingegaard or Roglič drop back to help him? It seems unlikely, and more plausible that if he does struggle, that’s him passing to baton to someone else.

Every man for himself

The final option, and perhaps most radical, is to let the road decide. It’s very clear that all three riders are riding with their own result in mind, and perhaps the only way for the team to pick a leader is to not pick one at all. Let them go head-to-head on the hardest climb, the strongest man wins.

There are many reasons why this wouldn’t be the ideal plan, not least because it endangers what would be a huge achievement in going 1-2-3 on GC, and due to the implications for team morale and relations, but on a climb like the Angliru, it might be their only option. Teamwork only gets you so far on a climb where the effects of draft are nowhere to be seen, and the gradients make it all about individual effort.

With Kuss’ race so far, it’s hard to tell where his form lies. He has been strong, but he hasn’t had to attack, and he’s had the two other best riders in the race working on his side. The team hasn’t been put under intense pressure, and they haven’t had to ride a climb like Wednesday’s. If stage 16 has shown anything, it’s that Vingegaard is very strong right now, and if Kuss shows any weakness on a climb almost designed to expose it, Vingegaard is primed to pounce.

'Win no matter who' means someone will lose

The team’s ethos so far has been that they just want to win - stages and the overall - and it doesn’t matter who that’s with. Vingegaard repeated that sentiment after Tuesday’s stage, saying they just wanted to win on the day, and all three had the freedom to attack. But whether they all had the freedom doesn’t change the fact that it was him who did, him who took time, and Kuss who lost out.

Race leader Kuss played the perfect teammate during his post-race duties, and reaffirmed during the rest day that he didn’t expect any gifts, but the Angliru looks poised to expose all cracks, and could see the American watch as one of his teammates takes the Vuelta from him.

“We’ll see, it’s a margin but I would like to win,” he said. “But if Jonas wins, he is stronger.”