Sean Kelly’s Giro d’Italia predictions: Pogačar power, Milan sprints and Alaphilippe precision

‘The only way of beating Pogačar is if you put 20kg under his saddle for a couple of days,’ says former rider

08:54, Saturday 4th May 2024

Daniel Benson

Editor in Chief

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Sean Kelly picked out Tadej Pogačar, Jonathan Milan and Julian Alaphilippe as tips for success in the Giro d'Italia

Ahead of the first men’s Grand Tour of the 2024 season, GCN caught up with cycling legend Sean Kelly to get his picks and predictions for the Giro d’Italia.

Kelly, a serial Monument winner and Vuelta a España champion – as well as a four-time green jersey winner at the Tour de France – runs through his podium predictions for the Giro d’Italia, his favourite for the sprints and points jersey, and his GC darkhorse.

You can follow GCN’s Giro d’Italia coverage throughout the next three weeks by bookmarking our 2024 Giro d’Italia landing page, and don’t forget to make your Giro predictions in the comments below.

Who will win the Giro d’Italia and why?

If he doesn’t have any problems with mechanicals, sickness or crashes then I can’t see anyone stopping Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates). I can’t see anyone challenging him and it could be over after just a week of racing if he decides to really dominate.

If you look at the opposition it’s not a super strong field so then you’re looking at the fight for the podium, and my picks for second and third are Dani Martínez (Bora-Hansgrohe) and Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers). For me, Martínez can climb, he’s a pretty good time trialist, he’s consistent and he’s a good bike handler. He knows how to stay out of danger and that’s an important skill at the start of the Giro d’Italia with all the sprinters there.

With Geraint, there’s a good performance in him but my only concern is whether he can stay out of trouble in the first few days of the race, as we’ve seen many, many times before that he’s prone to problems. The time trialling will suit him, though, if he can maintain his form. I think the only way of beating Pogačar is if you put 20kg under his saddle for a couple of days. You’d have to handicap him like they do in horse racing. In a straight-out race, I don’t see where he can be beaten at all. He’s too good all around, physically, tactically he can read the race really well and the team around him is really good.

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I think it’s very possible now that Pogačar does the Giro and the Tour de France double, especially after the crashes that we saw in the Basque Country in April and the difficulties that Jonas Vingegaard now has in terms of coming back in time for July.

Who is going to be the surprise GC package of this year’s Giro d’Italia?

Cian Uijtdebroeks will be aiming at a good GC result

Cian Uijtdebroeks (Visma-Lease a Bike) isn’t exactly going under the radar but he finished in the top 10 at the Vuelta a España last year. His time trialing might be a bit of a problem with the long TTs in this year’s Giro d’Italia. Then if you go down the line there’s Ben O’Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) or someone like Luke Plapp (Jayco AlUla). For me, Plapp is a very strong rider but he’s not someone who is good at riding at the front of the race enough. He seems to be dragging at the back of the bunch too much and that could be a problem and see him lose time in the end. Eddie Dunbar, I’m hoping he can do a top-five, but he’s not a good enough time trialist for the top three.

Who will win the points jersey in the Giro d’Italia?

I’m going to go with Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek). He’s stepped up this year and we’ve seen him really step up in the Classics. He’s a very strong rider and he’s going to be consistent, and on some of the days when it’s not very nice racing I can see him managing that being in the mix. He’s also got a strong lead-out with Jasper Stuyven and I can see Milan always being in contention, so even though he’s not the fastest on paper, I think he’ll do enough to get points throughout the race and take the points classification.

With some of the other sprinters, of course, there’s Tim Merlier. Then there’s Caleb Ewan but in my mind I’m not sure he’s as fast as he was three or four years ago. Against some of the younger sprinters, he could be up against it. That doesn’t mean he can’t win though, because if he finds the right wheel at the right time, he can take a stage win.

Who will be the breakaway star of the Giro d’Italia?

I think it will be a rider from one of the Italian teams. I don’t think we can look at someone like Luke Plapp because he’ll try and target the time trials and maybe hang on in GC for a while. Julian Alaphilippe will be far more selective and precise with the stages that he targets too. Look towards the smaller teams for a breakaway star, so perhaps someone from Polti Kometa, Bardiani or Tudor.

What else are you looking forward to in this year’s Giro d’Italia?

The sprint field is stacked with talent in this year's Giro d'Italia

It’s going to be exciting with all the sprinters. The fast men in the race are of a really high standard and they’ve got lots of stages to target. There’s also the fact that the Giro d’Italia always throws up some surprises, so we could always see some shocks in the pink jersey early on. Out of all the Grand Tours, the Giro is always the one that’s hard to predict.

For everything you need to know about the 2024 Giro d'Italia, from the history of the race to this year's route and start list, be sure to check out our dedicated race hub.