Back in black: Mintel UK bike market report predicts a good year for the industry

After years of contraction following the pandemic bike boom, the UK bicycle market is finally due to see some growth in 2024. A new report from global market intelligence and research agency Mintel predicts an increase in both the value and volume of new bike sales in the coming year, bringing the market up to a value of almost £1 billion.

The report predicts that the value of new bike sales is set to rise by 15%, bringing the value of the new bike market up to £998 million. Rather than any remarkable new high, this increase is more like a return to health after 2023 saw a 15% fall in the value of annual sales to £868 million.

The research suggests that 2023 represented rock bottom for the bike industry. Indeed, for many within it, it must have felt as such. Last year saw countless brands and retailers go into administration, bringing job losses and inventory imbalances across the industry.

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2024, according to Mintel, will be the year of recovery. They expect the number of new bikes sold to increase 12% from 2024; enough to make up for the 11% decrease in 2023, with a little bit of net growth besides.

Driving much of the growth are e-bikes. Electric assist bicycles are the most popular type of bike that cyclists plan to buy in the next 12 months. Of all the people planning to buy a bike in 2024, 19% plan to choose an e-bike. Given the higher value of e-bikes, this will contribute disproportionately to the 15% market value increase.

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The report's author, market analyst George Zabrowski, names e-bikes as the most exciting sector of the market going into 2024 and beyond:

"There remains a high degree of interest in mechanical bikes, however, the most exciting innovation is taking place with e-bikes, which may soon dominate bike sales."

Threatening growth to retailers and manufacturers is a rise in second-hand bike sales. The report states that half of people who ride a bike or would consider riding one are more likely to buy a second-hand bike than they were a year ago. The report suggests that the fact that Halfords now offers 'quality checked' second-hand bikes has influenced this figure by removing the risk factor from second-hand purchases.

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Mintel's Leisure Research category direct, Paul Davies, summarises:

"Rising living costs have severely impacted demand for new bikes and e-bikes, which had already been suffering due to COVID-19 related supply-side issues.

"A recovery in demand is now underway. In the near-term, easing inflation and wage growth are helping to improve consumer confidence while heavy discounting by retailers is helping to boost sales. The cost of living is also encouraging people to take to two wheels to get around, as around a third (34%) of Brits are cycling more compared to a year ago to reduce spending on petrol/public transport.

"Looking further ahead, continued investment and development in the country’s cycling infrastructure, and a rising focus on sustainable travel will help to further lift demand."