Will Mark Cavendish get his 35th Tour de France stage win?

The last time Mark Cavendish was preparing to start the Tour de France, two years ago, the matter of Eddy Merckx’s record was hardly even part of the conversation. After not winning a Tour stage since 2016, the question was whether he could win one at all in 2021, not if he could win several. With 30 stage wins to his name at the time, the overall record still seemed far off. Over those three weeks in France, though, the Manxman turned the narrative on its head. He won not one but four stages, rocketing himself into equalling Merckx’s record of 34 career wins at the Tour.

Lining up for his final Tour de France after announcing his retirement earlier this year, there’s only one question everyone is asking. Not only can he win a stage, but can he win a stage and therefore break Merckx’s record? Cavendish is just one victory away from making history - setting a record that may never be broken - but that one victory is perhaps the biggest, most pressurised of his career. It’s not just a win, it is the win. That, combined with the undeniable fact that the 38-year-old is in the twilight of his career and relying on a new team and new lead out, means that this may be the hardest win to achieve.

In the face of all those factors, can Mark Cavendish take a record-breaking stage victory in his final ever Tour de France? Despite the height of the challenge, the consensus among people who have raced and worked with Cavendish over the last 15 years is that winning a stage is certainly within his capability, if he can navigate the pressure. With a Giro stage win under his belt, and trusted former lead-out man Mark Renshaw joining Astana-Qazaqstan as a consultant just to help Cavendish’s sprint, his chances are looking better and better.

For Rolf Aldag, who directed Cavendish for almost all of his biggest wins from the 2008 Tour with Team Columbia to his last stages in 2016 with Team Dimension Data, Cavendish can’t be written off at this Tour.

“It might not be the case to say he’s by far the fastest sprinter in the bunch or anything, these days are not the days of the past anymore,” he said in an exclusive interview with GCN. “But of course he has a lot of technical skills, and therefore I do think he has a chance.”

Even the Manxman’s former rivals have faith in his chances. Whilst Aldag has celebrated countless wins with Cavendish, retired sprinter André Greipel has more often lost to him, in a rivalry than spanned years and many Tours. The German knows more than most what it takes to win a Tour stage, particularly in the face of pressure, but he doesn’t think that will stop Mark Cavendish.

“For sure, he’s capable to [win a stage],” Greipel told GCN. “You could see already at the Giro how he improved during the race. Especially now he knows it is his last Tour de France, so he’ll see it from a completely different perspective. It’s his last chance and he’s going to enjoy the Tour more than ever. He’s motivated and he’s proved a lot of people that underestimated him wrong."

Speed vs experience

To win a stage at this year’s Tour de France, Mark Cavendish will have to beat some of the best sprinters in the world: Jasper Philipsen, Fabio Jakobsen, Dylan Groenewegen, all riders who have shown off their speed in Grand Tour sprint finishes, and have strong teams around them. At 38, and on the basis of his Giro performances, it’s easy to say that Mark Cavendish does not always have the turn of speed he used to.

What he does have, though, is experience. Cavendish was winning Tour de France sprints before some of his competitors could even ride a bike, and he has proved that he can navigate a bunch sprint better than almost any other rider. Even in 2016, other riders may have been faster on paper, but Cavendish’s experience won out.

“It’s the instinct he has, especially in the positioning,” Greipel identified as what makes Cavendish different. “He has no fear, so that’s already two points where you have to be as a sprinter. So now it’s just the condition that counts. He’s well prepared so if it all comes together, he’s gonna be good for the sprints.”

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André Greipel (left) and Mark Cavendish have gone head-to-head countless times over the years.

Aldag didn’t shy away from the fact that Cavendish is no longer as fast as he used to be, but how much does that actually matter on the road? Perhaps less than we think.

“If you would say, we’re doing a drag race, perfect lead-out, everybody has to keep ten metres distance next to each other, and everybody has to be launched at two hundred metres to go at sixty five kilometres an hour, I don’t think he will win,” he said. “But that’s not really sprinting, is it? Sprinting is finding your position, being on the right side, using the other riders around you.

“If we bring him down to pure data, he probably would have only won fifteen stages in the Tour, not already more than thirty. Because pure data is just one part of the sprint. It needs a lot of experience and you need good positioning and so on. You need to be in the right place at the right time without being wasted, and certainly he is really good at that."

No matter how old he gets, or how close retirement draws, Cavendish’s tactical nous - the head part of sprinting, rather than the legs - doesn’t seem to be going anywhere.

The Astana-Qazaqstan lead-out

One of the biggest questions hanging over Cavendish’s assault on the Tour is his lead-out. The Manxman moved to Astana-Qazaqstan earlier this year, and it’s no secret that their lead-out train is not as impressive as the ones Cavendish has enjoyed at teams such as Quickstep and Dimension Data. He won’t have a Michael Mørkøv or Fabio Sabatini to follow; fellow new recruit Cees Bol will be his final man in what is a somewhat unpracticed lead-out train.

“I don’t think they lack horsepower,” Aldag said of the Astana lead-out. “I do think they lack practice and experience. I do think they miss the status in the peloton as a lead-out team, which is always important. In the chaos, if you look left and right, I do think it does make a difference if you see Michael Mørkøv or Danny van Poppel, that probably automatically creates more respect than if somebody randomly shows up there.

“If you see the pros and the cons it’s probably fifty-fifty on the scale. I would say he has some advantage over others because he has the full team behind him, and he has some disadvantages because his lead-out is just not as well trained as others."

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Cavendish will have a modest Astana-Qazaqstan lead-out at this year’s Tour.

However, whilst Cavendish won’t have the dominant lead-out he’s been part of in the past - something his HTC-Highroad became particularly well-known for - there’s an increasing view that a long lead-out is becoming less and less crucial.

“I wouldn’t say it’s so important to have a full lead-out anymore,” Greipel said. “It all comes down to the last two guys. They have Cees Bol, Martin Laas is normally in the lead-out train as well but he crashed in the ZLM Tour. Let’s say the last two guys are important, and he has some good guys there to help him out.”

Aldag was one of the main architects of the HTC-Highroad train, but echoed Greipel’s sentiment on the changing nature of sprinting.

“The style of racing now, it’s not like in the old days when we had a train with HTC that could dominate in the last three kilometres, and you would just have to execute that,” he said. “Now it’s much more chaotic, it’s much more random. Many many times you’ll see people winning the sprint with a big gap, but then the next day they are 19th and the third day they are seventh and then they are nowhere again. I think these chaotic situations play into his hands.”

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Cavendish will reunite with Mark Renshaw (right) at this year’s Tour de France.

What’s more, Astana-Qazaqstan recently announced that Cavendish’s long-term lead-out man Mark Renshaw will be joining the team as a sprint consultant during the Tour. Whilst Cavendish may be wishing they could roll back the years to their winning partnership on the road, Renshaw will undoubtedly be an invaluable asset even from the car, able to direct the sprints and guide the lead-out in a way he knows will work for his rider.

“He’s a really important guy,” Greipel said of Renshaw. “Because he will take a lot of work off of Mark’s shoulders.”

Cavendish’s sprinting legacy

Outside of the all-time stage wins record, this Tour de France will be Cavendish’s last, and therefore cement his sprinting legacy at the race. All eyes may be on the magical 35, but even if he doesn't win it, Cavendish will surely end his final Tour as one of the best riders to ever grace its road.

“I wouldn’t put him in the list of best sprinters of all time, I think he is the best sprinter of all time,” Aldag asserted. “I would really be wondering how anybody can ever argue that he’s not the best sprinter in the world, historically. It’s like, full stop. People might not like him, people might think whatever, but he is the best sprinter in the world, in history. It’s just a statement, it’s not like if or how, because who else would it be?”

The record isn’t necessarily about beating Merckx, or trying to be a better rider than the legendary Belgian - it’s like “comparing pineapples and bananas”, Aldag said - but putting a final cherry on the top of his career. And if he doesn’t do it? His astounding win record still stands, and he will still retire as one of the best. That perhaps takes some pressure off, but the carrot of the record is still there.

“I don’t think it’s going to be extra pressure, but I would be surprised if it’s really nowhere in his head,” Aldag said. “I do think he wants it. I do think he realises it’s the last Tour de France for him. Therefore we should also not underestimate him.”

GCN’s expert view

Despite the rocky start to his year, as we head towards the Grand Depart, the growing consensus seems to be that Mark Cavendish’s chances of taking a fairytale win at this Tour are becoming more of a reality. For GCN’s The Breakaway anchor Orla Chennaoui, it’s not just a possibility, but a certainty.

“I have zero doubt that Mark Cavendish can win a stage of his final Tour de France. Zero doubt,” Orla said. “I’ve been having this debate since the beginning of the season and even then, when most were rubbishing my conviction, I fully believed it. Why? Because I’ve never known an athlete like him. I’ve never seen someone who has such an understanding of and belief in his own ability, and who’s maintained that over such an incredible and tumultuous period of time. Simply put, he’s a winner, and if he didn’t believe he could win, he wouldn’t be there.

“I went to see Mark on the Isle of Man a few weeks ago to film a Discovery documentary and I don’t believe I’ve ever seen him so relaxed, so at peace. He fully believes in his ability to deliver but knows better than anyone, that form and winning experience guarantees nothing at the Tour. Being able to win is not the same as a sprint panning out in a way that allows you to deliver on it. He has the first half of the equation. The race will determine the rest.”

When are his chances?

Despite the brutally hard first week, there are a number of good chances for the sprinters at this year’s Tour. The fastmen can wave goodbye to the yellow jersey or a win on the opening weekend in Spain, but as the race heads to France, there will be seven or eight chances for the sprinters to go head to head. At the Giro, the Manxman missed out on every sprint opportunity until the very final day, so it’s not all bad news if he gets off to a slow start.

Having several opportunities should play into Cavendish’s hands, according to Rolf Aldag. “What is interesting is that there are plenty of sprints, so you don’t have to use every opportunity,” he said. “It’s probably one out of seven, and winning one out of seven is doable. Especially because most sprinters don’t get it consistently right.”

The first chance for Cavendish to break the record will come on stage 3 to Bayonne, and again the next day on the road to Nogaro. Stages 7, 11, 18, 19 and of course the final gallop on the Champs-Élysées should all be sprint days, and so could stage 8 depending on how it plays out. If the stage record is going to be broken, it will happen on one of those stages.