Tour de France 2023: the great American expectations

While the number and prominence of Americans at the Tour de France has fluctuated over the past decade, 2023 is set to be an edition where the American contingent will play an important role throughout the three weeks of racing.

America does not yet have a sprinter who can compete for Tour stages, nor a rider with the credentials to fight for a GC podium, yet the riders here are some of the most talented and dynamic racers within the entire peloton. Who are they and what will they be up to? Read on for our predictions.

Sepp Kuss (Jumbo-Visma) – Durango, Colorado

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Sepp Kuss during the Giro d’Italia where he assisted in Primož Roglič’s overall victory

When talking about Americans at the Tour de France, Sepp Kuss (Jumbo-Visma) is the only name to start with. Not only has he won a Tour stage – which is one more than any other riders on this list – but he was also fundamental in Jonas Vingegaard’s 2022 Tour victory. Furthermore, Kuss is fresh off of pulling Primož Roglič around the mountains of the Giro d’Italia for three weeks, helping the Slovenian win his first pink jersey. By all accounts, and in particular his Strava account, Kuss’ fitness has only grown. The Durango native is, at this point in his career, becoming a signature figure in the Tour. Surely, 2023 will be no different.

What to expect

Sepp Kuss to do his Sepp Kuss thing: ride uphill faster than almost everyone. First in the Jumbo-Visma mountain train will be Christophe Laporte and Nathan van Hooydonck. Then will come Tiesj Benoot, Wout van Aert and Dylan van Baarle. Finally, Wilco Kelderman will raise the pace. Behind him, Kuss will be dancing away with a diminutive Jonas Vingegaard, most likely wearing a slightly more yellow jersey, trailing close behind. It will be, once again, a staggering line-up of talent punctuated by some of the peloton’s strongest pure climbers. In what will be Kuss’ fourth Tour, his MO is clear as day - help his leader win the race.

Matteo Jorgenson (Movistar Team) – Boise, Idaho

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Matteo Jorgenson during the stage 4 time trial at the Critérium du Dauphiné

Beyond Sepp Kuss, Matteo Jorgenson (Movistar Team) is the American who will probably make the biggest dent in the race, if his spring is any indication of where his fitness will be come July. Despite a good spring, though, June has not been kind to Jorgenson. While he started strong in the Critérium du Dauphiné, two hard crashes on the go-slow stage 3 dampened what was looking like an infallible build to the summer.

For those of you who may have missed it, his spring included second overall at the Tour de Romandie, a fourth place behind ‘the big three’ at E3 Harelbeke, and top 10 finishes at the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Nice.For that very reason, Jorgenson is one of the most interesting riders in the peloton. He is almost old school in his slow, iterative development. Each year, the American just gets better. While his peers may have been more prodigious out of the junior ranks, Jorgenson had a graft that hasn’t slowed down. But progress at this point in his career seems to be more of a fork in the road – with one hand pointing to a one-day and stage hunting focus, and the other towards a GC focus – than a defined path forward.

What to expect

Jorgenson is an enigma when it comes to expectations. Will Movistar demand the hearty all-rounder stays by leader Enric Mas? Will Jorgenson have a stage hunting role? Or, with his  burgeoning week-long stage race CV, will the Movistar man try his hand at his first Grand Tour top 10? For the man from Idaho, the Tour seems to be his oyster.

Likely, with the rumours circling overhead of a move to Jumbo-Visma for 2024, Jorgenson will be looking for every chance to grab personal glory. Thus, expect Jorgenson to be dutifully by Mas’ side for some of the days, and far in front of the peloton on others. A high GC place is much more likely to come from a ‘shoots and ladders’ approach and less likely to come from being a sticky mountain domestique.

Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost) – Sacramento, California

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Neilson Powless rolling to the start after the team presentation at the 2023 Fleche Wallonne

Three riders finished in the top 10 of both the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Nice this spring. One is Tadej Pogačar, and the other two are on this list: Matteo Jorgenson, and Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost). In any other year, with any lesser rider than Pogačar steamrolling the early season, Jorgenson and Powless’s exploits would be lauded sky high. But that is not the world we live in and cycling is very much about what one has done lately.

In Powless’s case, that has not been a whole lot. While the American Classics rider was active in the Tour de Suisse, it was a big step down from the competitiveness he showed at last year’s Tour dress rehearsal where he finished 4th overall. Nonetheless, Suisse is small fry compared to July and the American team EF Education-EasyPost will have big designs for their home rider and second-best UCI point-scorer.

What to expect

What exactly those designs will be, however, is up for discussion. Similar to Jorgenson, Powless is stuck between moments to find his own stage options and in playing a more supportive role in a team that will have a former podium finisher in Richard Carapaz leading the GC charge. While Carapaz, on paper, would be very well suited for this year’s Tour route, the Ecuadorian had a shocker of a Dauphiné after a stop-start spring that has produced more questions than answers when it comes to his Tour form. While Powless may have started the summer Grand Tour season with the perspective of being more of a domestique than he was last year, the recent races suggest things might have to be more fluid in the EF camp.

If the American team was to relinquish its GC ambition with Carapaz, who is as adept as a stage hunter in Grand Tours as a GC man, Powless would be one of five proven winners. Between Carapaz, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Alberto Bettiol, Rigoberto Urán and Powless, EF have multiple options for any stage that doesn’t end in a group gallup. From that perspective, and with the questions around Carapaz, this Tour seems like a fantastic forum for Powless to elevate to Tour de France stage winner.

Quinn Simmons (LIDL Trek) – Durango, Colorado

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Quinn Simmons climbing up Le Tolfe at the 2023 Strade Bianche

Quinn Simmons is back to the Tour de France and will come with a brand new shirt to boot! The American road race champion is coming off of a bit of a resurgence in form after an anonymous couple of months of racing and will be motivated to put on a show with the stars and stripes. That being said, Simmons often seems to prioritise the show and the audacity he is capable of in favour of being a shrewd racer, so on the biggest stages he is often left holding the bag as more experienced riders take the spoils. Yet, as shown by Simmons power file at the recent national championship, he has the power to be in almost any stage winning breakaway at the Tour. The key will be if this is the year his racing nous can translate being there to winning.

What to expect:

With motivation and momentum on his side, this year provides ample opportunities for Simmons to come good from a breakaway. It is his second Tour and only his third Grand Tour, so with some experience under his belt to boot, expect to see the American in better positions to perform at the pointy end of affairs. What might end up foiling him, and foiling any breakaway rider, would be Tadej Pogacar’s need for bonus seconds on the medium mountain days, but that might be premature speculation. There are certainly days that suit the powerhouse from the high mountains of Colorado and you can count on Simmons making a number of successful breakaways, and, possibly, stealing a march on those other top tier stage hunters.

Joe Dombrowski (Astana Qazaqstan Team) – Marshall, Virginia

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Joe Dombrowski during the 2022 Tour de France, his first go at the race

Astana Qazaqstan has a clear objective but an awkward solution. With Mark Cavendish coming on board, and the Manx Missile chasing the all-time stage wins record this year, Astana will have a successful tour if they manage to get one win with one man. But sprinting is never that simple and, to be frank, Astana does not have the depth to field seven domestiques who can all capably support Cavendish in the sprints. Furthermore, Astana has had success with established riders on the roster, namely Alexey Lutsenko, and will be hoping to be competitive beyond the sprint stages.

With those diverse objectives in mind, Astana has tried to create a team with balance, despite their lack in depth, and are calling on Joe Dombrowski to double up this Grand Tour season with his second Tour start in as many years, following a ride at the Giro this May. While Dombrowski has had a subdued year so far, there will be at the very least opportunity to chase breakaways during the climbing stages at this year's Tour.

What to expect

Unfortunately, the chances for pure climbers outside of the GC battle to win stages is expected to be sparse. Both Jumbo-Visma and UAE Team Emirates will have incentives to keep a tight leash on escapees and it seems likely that this will take the win away from potential breakaway riders on the few summit finishes on this year's route. With Dombrowski’s climbing characteristics, this means his chances of taking a stage to match the win he secured in the 2021 Giro are slim. Nevertheless, expect to see him up the road in the Alps and trying to find something special. Dombrowski often comes good in the final week of Grand Tours, so look out for him there especially.

Kevin Vermaerke (Team DSM - fermanich) – Orange County, California

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Kevin Vermaerke leading Romain Bardet at the recent Tour de Suisse

Kevin Vermaerke is one of Team DSM’s numerous young riders who fit a similar mould. Vermaerke is a good climber, but not a stand out. Vermaerke is a rider who has made strong results at the U23 classics level, but has yet to develop into a rider that can withstand the classics at the World Tour level. Yet, he is starting his second Tour in two consecutive years with a fairly open role outside of duties to protect Romain Bardet. At only age 22, things are still progressing for the man from Southern California and there is a wide open horizon. The question is will this be the Tour where he can elevate his stock through an individual performance or in a supporting role?

What to expect:

Vermaerke’s selection was a bit of a surprise, but with strong climbing performances at the Tour of Suisse it seems as if he earned his way onto the team by being present and able to help Bardet to a top-five overall when the going got tough. In the Tour, where DSM will have the split agenda of a high GC result for Bardet and sprint wins for Sam Welsford, Bardet will need a few riders to be there constantly for the three weeks. In the battle for the Tour GC, little moments of support can pay dividends as contenders rise and fall. For Vermarke, his objective in this tour will be to help manage the falls and springboard the rises.

Lawson Craddock (Team Jayco-AlUla) – Austin, Texas

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Lawson Craddock during the stage 3 time trial at the Tour de Romandie

Lawson Craddock has ridden the Tour twice during his career and is best known for the pain he endured to make it through one of them. The Texas native was badly hurt in the early days of the 2018 Tour de France and soldiered on, raising money along the way. It was a fight that drove lots of buzz and goodwill, but ultimately has not been followed by a great deal of further success for Craddock beyond the consecutive US TT championships he won in 2021 and 2022. That being said, Craddock has been a staple of Jayco-AlUla’s roster at important races throughout his two seasons with the Australian outfit, and has the potential to continue to grow into that domestique role.

What to expect

With a single Grand Tour top three to his name, do not expect Craddock to play a huge role in the fight for stages at the 2023 Tour, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have an impact on the race. It is likely that Craddock will be in a breakaway or two along during the race, but his main role will be to support sprinter Dylan Groenewegen and GC hope Simon Yates. That hierarchy at Jayco seems fairly set in stone, and Craddock will be a key domestique.

A good year for American success

Sepp Kuss’s stage win in the 2021 Tour was only the second American stage win since the ill-fated years of Lance Amstrong and Floyd Landis, but the current generation could change that soon. From the Americans on Tour this year, to the young riders who did not make this year’s cut – namely Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates) and Magnus Sheffield (Ineos Grenadiers) – there is a sea change in the expectations of Americans on cycling’s biggest stage. These riders are, undeniably, rubbing shoulders with the best riders in the world.

This seven rider line-up illuminates the state of American cycling by providing the perfect contrast between the two generations of the country's cycling talent. On one side are the two relative veterans in their early thirties in Dombrowski and Craddock. Solid riders with solid upside (Dombrowski’s emphatic Giro stage win is still fresh in many American die-hard fans minds), but not world beaters. On the other side are four world-class talents in their twenties who all can win stages. This year it seems increasingly likely that the Americans will go from knocking on the door of Tour success to bursting through the threshold. Expect, as a whole, for this to be the year where Americans win multiple stages at the Tour de France and end up with a rider back in the top 10 in the GC by Paris.